Let's Talk About Sports

UNC will win the National Championship

2005-03-30T17:18:00.000-05:00

This is what I wrote in a February 4th post on college basketball and UNC:

"I don't care what the records say. I don't care if Illinois is 22-0 and BC is 20-0. The best team in the country is North Carolina and they have two losses."

Since then, the Illini have only lost one game, a heartbreaker in the last game of the regular season at Ohio State. After leading the whole game, Matt Sylvester hit a 3 with less than 10 seconds left, to give Ohio State a 65-64 win on Senior Day. I tried to warn the Illini that this would be a tough game, but I guess Bruce Weber, head coach of Illinois doesn't read my blog. Here is what I wrote a week before the Ohio State game on Sunday February 27th.

"Illinois will try to finish the regular season undefeated, but the Buckeyes will be pumped up as they cannot participate in the NCAA tourney because of a violation, and this game is basically their national championship."

I hate to say it, but I told you that the Buckeyes would be pumped for that game.

It seems almost hard to imagine that less than two months ago BC was still undefeated and cruising through the Big East. They proceeded to go 4-4 in their last 8 games before the tourney, losing to Notre Dame, Villanova, Pitt on Senior Day, and West Virginia in the Big East tournament. They won their first game in the tournament, but the Cinderella team, University of Wisconsin Milwaukee knocked out the Eagles in the round of 32.

UNC has lost two games since February 4th when I declared that they were the best team in college basketball. They lost to Duke by a point at Cameron, and then lost in the ACC semifinals to Georgia Tech. Besides those two hiccups, the Tar Heels have cruised through the season. Their first two games of the tourney were a joke, as they won the two games by a combined score of 55 points. To get to the Final Four, the Tar Heels had a much tougher time than I expected them to have. They almost lost to Villanova, which was playing without their star forward Curtis Sumpter, as they Heels survived and won 67-66. Then on Easter weekend, I expected their game against Wisconsin to be the blowout of the weekend. Wrong! The Tar Heels allowed the Badgers to stay in the game and only beat them by 6, 88-82. In spite of their recent close calls, they will be cutting down the nets on Monday night.

The reason the Tar Heels will be cutting down the nets can basically be summed up in two words: Sean May. Sean May has had an amazing tournament so far, and when the Tar Heels get him the ball on the low block, he is unstoppable. The Illini do not have anybody that can stop May, and they have struggled playing against big strong post players all year long. The latest example was against Arizona, when Channing Frye scored 24 points on 11 of 14 shooting, and grabbed 12 boards. Frye is a great player and will be in the NBA next year, but let me tell you that he is no Sean May (and I'm a huge Arizona fan). May simply dominates whoever he plays against. In the two times he played against Sheldon Williams of Duke this year, he outplayed him both times. In the first game May scored 23 points and had 18 boards in the one point Tar Heel loss. In the rematch game, May scored 26 points, and had 24 boards and literally willed the Heels to victory. It was a performance that I will not forget for years to come. May will have an interesting test in the form of Paul Davis on Saturday night, who is having quite a tournament for himself. Davis is two inches taller than May, and is also listed as 17 pounds heavier than May, although I find that hard to believe. I feel that even though May is smaller and not is heavy, he will come out on top of this important matchup in the Michigan State vs. North Carolina game.

There is another reason that the Tar Heels will win on Monday against Illinois and that is depth. The Tar Heels go 10 deep, while Illinois had two guys that play off the bench in Jack Ingram and Rich McBride. Illinois also has Nick Smith a 7-2 center, but since he did not play against Arizona, I am going to assume that he will not play in the championship game. After all, if you're not going to play your 7-2 center when the opposing team has a center shooting 11 of 14 from the field, when will you play him? Even more important than just the depth that UNC is the quality of that depth. Marvin Williams would be starting on any other team in college basketball and would be averaging over 20 points. Instead, he is the best 6th man in America, and he is likely to be the #1 pick in this year's draft, according to many experts. Marvin is a 6-9 power forward that can shoot the 3 with the best of them, but can also play inside and play tough. In the second round game against Iowa State, Williams had an unbelievable stat line: 26 minutes, 20 points, 15 boards, 1 block, 2 steals, and shot 8 of 12 from the field, and 2 of 4 from behind the arc. This guy is absolutely the best weapon any coach could have coming off the bench. UNC also has a defensive stopper in David Noel, as well as a 3 point threat in Melvin Scott coming off the bench.

After 6 months of college basketball, and 4 months of waiting, college basketball fans are finally going to see the matchup they have been waiting for. UNC vs. Illinois. It doesn't quite have the ring of a Duke vs. UNC game, but it promises to be just as exciting, if not more than those games. At least 6 of the players in this game will be in the NBA within the next two years (Dee Brown, Deron Williams, Sean May, Raymond Felton, Rashad McCants, and Marvin Williams). UNC will cut down the nets on Monday and Roy Williams will celebrate in his first championship. The Illini had a great season, but will come up short, because they do not have an answer for Sean May or the depth that Carolina has.

We have waited long enough, and know we will finally get to see the game, and let the results speak for themselves. The results will point to UNC being National Champions for 2005.

Players to Watch in Thursday's Games

2005-03-23T17:09:00.000-05:00

Louisville vs. Washington 7:10PM

Both of these teams play fast paced and the score of this game will definitely be in the 80's, if not higher. Washington plays a three guard set with Nate Robinson leading the attack. Although Robinson is a few inches short of six feet, his vertical is 43 inches, and he is as quick Earl Boykins. Robinson can shoot the 3, drive, and he makes things happen out on the floor. He almost left Washington last year after his sophomore year, but he decided to come back for one more year. Robinson will most likely enter the draft this year, and will continue to be the little pest that he is out on the court right now in the NBA.

Francisco Garcia is a player any college basketball fan has known about since his freshmen year. He is the type of player that coaches want to have the ball in their last possession. Garcia is great, because not only can he create his own shoot, but he also is smart enough to know when to drive and kick the ball to the open man. Garcia is also an excellent free throw shooter at 87 percent. Garcia was honored on Senior Day in Louisville, even though he is only a junior, because he is leaving after this year to go to the NBA. Oh, and by the way, in the two biggest games of the year Garcia had 27 points in the first round game against LA Lafayette, and then had 21 in the rout of Georgia Tech.

Wisconsin Milwaukee at Illinois 7:25PM
When you play the Panthers, you better be ready to defend the 3 point line. In their first round game against Alabama, the Panthers hit 12 three pointers, 10 of them in the first half in knocking out No. 5 seed Alabama. They followed that up in their second round game against BC, by hitting 11 three pointers, and sending a team that started the year 20-0 back home to Boston. Unfortunately, for the Panthers Illinois is much better than the two teams they have already faced. If the Panthers are going to have any shot, Ed McCants has to have a huge game. In both first round games he hit 4 three pointers, and the Panthers need some more of his magic touch in order to keep the Cinderella shoe on for another day.

How can you only mention one player from Illinois to direct your defensive effort towards? Answer: you can't. You can't mention Dee Brown, without mentioning the point guard who runs the show (Deron Williams), and the other backcourt mate, Luther Head. These three guards are almost unstoppable and they have lead Illinois to a 34-1 record this year. Dee Brown might be the most entertaining of the 3 guards simply for his speed, and his ability to change the game, either on offense or on defense. Against Michigan when Illinois was down late in the second half, Dee came up with 3 straight steals that lead to baskets to lead the Illini to victory and keep them unbeaten. He has an ultra quick release on his shot, and he has NBA range and then some. There is no way you can watch the Illini and not admire the type of player and effort that Dee gives.

West Virginia at Texas Tech 9:40
Who would have thought the Mountaineers would be in the sweet sixteen? I did pick them to win their first round game against Creighton, but I did not have the guts to pick them to beat Wake Forest. I don't imagine that many people did. This team has come almost out of nowhere, and up to this point, has won the most entertaining game in the tournament. This team does not have a player that averages more than 12 points a game, yet somehow they managed to put up 111 points on Wake Forest. If there is one player to watch in this game for UWV it is Mike Gansey. Gansey is a transfer from St. Bonaventure, and he was on the team a few years ago when they voted to forfeit their last two games of the regular season. Gansey scored 19 of his 29 points in the two overtimes in the win over Wake Forest. Gansey has a nose for the ball, and he always seems to be in the right place at the right time. This kid has instincts, and has basketball smarts that many players his age are lacking. If there is a loose ball in this game or a rebound that is important, look for Gansey to be in the mix.

Ronald Ross is a former walk-on at Texas Tech, and he is somebody that coach Bobby Knight has continually praised as one of the hardest working kids Knight has ever coached. Coming from a coach that has over 800 victories, that is no small feat. Ross is a guard that shines brightly in Bobby Knight's motion offense. Ross is a great 3 point shooter, and he is the leader and the go to guy for the Red Raiders. When Ross and Jarious Jackson play well, so do the Red Raiders. If these two guys are neutralized, UWV could be headed to the elite 8.

Arizona at Oklahoma State 9:55 PM
This is the game that I am looking forward to the most. I am a huge Arizona fan, and I am counting the hours until the game starts. Oklahoma State went to the Final Four a year ago, and brings in a very experienced team, but the one player that might be the X factor is the freshmen: JamesOn Curry. I first saw JamesOn play on February 7th against Oklahoma on Big Monday when he scored 22 points and looked like the diaper dandy that he was expected to be. Since that game he has scored in double figures 8 out of the past 11 games. In the first two games of the tournament, JamesOn scored 31 points, hit 5 of 6 three pointers, and was 12 of 14 from the free throw line. Other analysts might talk about how the Wildcats need to stop Joey Graham or John Lucas, but the X factor for the Cowboys is JamesOn Curry.

When you think of Arizona, you think of Salim Stoudamire. Everybody knows that the Wildcats will only go as far as Salim will take them. Salim has been the best outside shooter this year in college basketball, as he shot 51% on three pointers for the year. In the first round he hit 8 three pointers, and scored 45 points. If you give Salim enough room to breathe on the court, that is too much. If your playing defense on him, you must be up in his face, and force him to drive to the basket. That is easier said than done. He has such a quick release, and the Wildcats run all sorts of screens, and pick and rolls to get him open to launch a 3. And it doesn't matter where he gets the ball on the court, because he is always a threat to shoot it.

"When fellow senior and friend Channing Frye was asked about Stoudamire's range, he just laughed.

"Range? What range?" Frye said. "His range is forever."

Asked the same question, Stoudamire shrugs.

"I don't look where I am on the court," he said. "I just let it go."

Olson said Stoudamire and Steve Kerr are the best long-range shooters he's coached." link

So although Channing Frye and Hassan "HOT SAUCE" Adams play an integral role in Arizona's offense, it is Stoudamire that needs to be stopped first and foremost. Otherwise, it is going to be a long day for the Cowboys defense.

Matt

Perfection

2005-03-14T18:06:00.000-05:00

I guess this is what happens when every waking second you are thinking about college basketball and the implications that each game will have on the NCAA tournament. Although I got all 65 teams right, don't think it came without a price. The price I paid was: watching college basketball every night since November, constantly looking at team schedules, checking RPI numbers daily, and reading countless articles on the net about the sport I love. I hope you enjoy the tournament over the next three week as I know I am going to, and remember next year to keep coming back to my blog every Monday for my 65 picks on who will make the NCAA tournament.

Justin via Matt from Florida

Predicting the NCAA Tournament

2005-03-13T17:45:00.000-05:00

As most of you know, I have been predicting who will make the NCAA Tournament for the past 6 weeks. Well, now is the time when we will actually see how well I have been doing as Selection Sunday is just a few days away. Every day, I will be making revisions to these list, and my list revision will be done on Sunday afternoon. I am leaving for Florida tomorrow, but I will be calling my brother every day with the revisions that I want him to make. So, without further ado, here is the field of 65:

First all of the automatic bids:
America East: Vermont
Atlantic 10: George Washington
ACC: Duke
Atlantic Sun: Central Florida
Big 12: Oklahoma St.
Big East: Syracuse
Big Sky: Montana
Big South: Winthrop
Big Ten: Illinois
Big West: Utah St.
Colonial Athletic Association: Old Dominion
Conference USA: Louisville
Horizon League: Wisconsin-Milwaukee
Ivy: Penn
Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference: Niagara
Mid Continent Conference: Oakland
Mid American Conference: Ohio
Mid Eastern Athletic Conference: Delaware State
Missouri Valley Conference: Creighton
Mountain West Conference: New Mexico
Northeast Conference: Farleigh Dickinson
Ohio Valley Conference: Eastern Kentucky
Pac 10: Washington
Patriot League: Bucknell
SEC: Florida
Southern: UT-Chattanooga
Southland: SE Louisiana
Southwestern Athletic Conference: Alabama A &M
Sun Belt Conference: LA Lafayette
West Coast Conference: Gonzaga
Western Athletic Conference: UTEP

These are the teams that I feel will be getting the remaining 34 at large bids.

Big East (5): UConn, Pitt, BC, West Virginia, Villanova
Big 12 (5): Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Texas, Iowa State
ACC (4): North Carolina, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, N.C. State
SEC (4): Mississippi State, LSU, Alabama, Kentucky
Conference USA (3): Cincinnati, Charlotte, UAB
Big 10 (4): Wisconsin, Michigan State, Iowa, Minnesota
Pac 10 (3): Arizona, UCLA, Stanford
Big West (1): Pacific
Missouri Valley Conference (2): Southern Illinois, Northern Iowa
Mountain West (1): Utah
West Coast Conference (1): St. Mary's
Western Athletic Conference (1): Nevada

Keep checking back daily for the changes that I will be making via my brother to the bracket. I hope to at least get 61 or 62 teams right, with the goal being perfection of 65.

Matt

Viewing Guide for March 7-13

2005-03-07T17:13:00.000-05:00

It's Championship Week in college basketball, which is one of the best weeks in the entire year. Every team in college basketball has a chance to go dancing, if they win their conference tournament. ESPN is airing 99 games during the course of the week, and here are a few that you should check out.

Monday

College Basketball

St. Mary's vs. Gonzaga 11:59 ESPN
So what if the game is on at 11:59? These two teams played twice this year, with each team winning one time. This time they meet in the WCC championship game, where the automatic bid will be decided. Both of these teams will be dancing, regardless because they have had great seasons. This game is for bragging rights, and important to the seeding of these teams. I cannot wait to stay up tonight til 2:30 AM to watch this one!!

NBA

Philadelphia at Miami 7:30PM
C Webb is now in Philly to play second fiddle to AI. It won't matter in this game, as Shaq and D Wade will lead the Heat to victory.

MLB

New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox 7pm
This is the first game between these two teams, since the memorable game 7 comeback win last October. Even though these two teams hate each other, it will not show in this game, as all the minor leaguers will play the majority of the game.

Tuesday

College Basketball

Detroit at Wisconsin-Milwaukee 9:00PM ESPN
The thing I love about championship week is that you finally get a chance to see all the mid-majors play, and see how good they actually are. I've been hearing about RPI numbers, W-L records, and SOS of these teams for months. Enough of that; I want to see these teams play. UWM has had a great year at 23-5, and will try to get the automatic bid from the Horizon league.

NBA

Memphis at Sacramento 10:30PM

With C Webb in Philly, this might be the first time that Memphis can claim that they are a better team than Sactown. Let's see if they can prove it.

Wednesday

College Basketball

Providence vs. West Virginia 2pm ESPN
Losing their last game of the regular season against Seton Hall really hurt UWV chances of making the tourney. They need at least 2 wins in the Big East tourney to get in.

Tulane vs. DePaul 3:30 ESPN2
The Blue Demons lost 4 out of their last 6 and therefore are firmly on the bubble.

Seton Hall vs. Georgetown 7pm ESPN
After losing their last 5 games of the regular season, the Hoyas need a huge run in the Big East tourney to get into the dance.

Rutgers at Notre Dame 9pm ESPN
The Fighting Irish need at least 1 win in the tourney to feel safe about going to the big dance.

NBA

Atlanta at Boston 7pm FSN
Antoine plays against his former team that traded him to the Celtics 2 weeks ago. Look for Walker and the Celts to have a big night.

Thursday

College Basketball

Pitt vs. Villanova 2pm ESPN
This is why the Big East is so fun to watch. You get to watch great matchups, such as this one on a Thursday afternoon on Championship Week. I love it!!

Arizona State vs. Washington 9:15 FSN
Don't count out Ike Diogu and AZU making a run in the Pac 10 tourney to get into the dance. Ike is just plain sick, and he will be playing in the NBA for 15 years to come.

NBA

Minnesota at Miami 7pm TNT
Will KG have to guard Shaq in this game? If so, I think Shaq can handle KG inside without a problem. Nevertheless, it will be an interesting matchup to watch.

Friday

College Basketball

Do I really need to tell you what games to watch today? If you don't already know, I guess you'll never know. Put on ESPN the whole day for ACC, Big East, and Big Ten conference tournaments. Also on FSN, there will be the Pac 10 tournament games.

NBA

Detroit Pistons at Boston Celtics 7:30 FSN
This a huge game for the Celts against arguably the best team in the East. It will be interesting to see how the Celts new additions fare in this game.

Saturday

College Basketball

Conference USA Championship Game 11:30AM CBS
Who is going to be in this game? My guess is Louisville and Cincinnati. I was not a fan of Louisville earlier in the season, but Larry O'Bannon, Francisco Garcia, and Taquan Dean convinced me this team is for real.

American East Championship 11:30 ESPN
Will Vermont win the American East in Coppenwrath's last season? I sure hope so, as this guy is a huge force, and I would love to see him play against big time centers in the tourney.

Pac 10 Championship 6pm ESPN
I want Arizona and Washington to be in this game so bad it's not even funny. The last Arizona vs. Washington game, I paced in my room the entire game, only to have my Wildcats fall a few points short. I want revenge on the Huskies!!

Big East Championship 8pm ESPN
I predict that UConn will win the Big East championship. But I guess we will just have to wait and see....

Sunday

College Basketball

Selection Show 6pm CBS
The time is here!! After months of waiting, teams find out if they have made the tourney!!

Matt

I will be in Florida the next two Sundays, so there will not be Viewers Guides for those weeks. All you need to know is watch the tournament on CBS!!!

Comparing The Brackets

2005-03-01T14:54:00.000-05:00

It's Tuesday, so that means it's time for my weekly column comparing my brackets with those of Joe Lunardi's, Bracketology 101's, and this week I am also going to compare mine with Stewart Mandel of Sports Illustrated. Here are the picks on which we had different opinions.

Joe Lunardi has three picks which were different from mine and those teams are Monmouth (N.J.), Creighton, and Saint Joseph's.

Stewart Mandel from SI has 4 picks which I did not pick and those teams are: Wichita State, Northern Iowa, Saint Joseph's and Gardner and Webb.

Craig and Chris from Bracketology 101 only have 1 pick out of 65 that I disagree with them on, and that is Creighton.

Now, I am going to explain to you, why I did not include any of these 6 bubble teams in my predictions.

Creighton: They have won their last 5 games and now stand at 20-10 and 11-7 in the tough MVC. They also have big non-conference wins against Xavier, Nebraska, Ohio State and Missouri. Creighton was the 66th team, meaning they were one spot out of being included in my bracket. I decided to put Indiana in, after their big win against Michigan State on Sunday. If Creighton gets to the finals in the MVC, I think they are in, because the last 6 years the MVC has had at least 2 teams in the tourney. This year it could very well be Creighton and Southern Illinois.

Wichita State: After looking like a sure tournament team a few weeks ago, they have now lost 5 of their last 6. Last night they lost when Northern Iowa hit a 3 at the buzzer to win it. This team has no momentum, and is definitely on the outside looking in right now. They must make some noise in the MVC tournament to even be considered.

Northern Iowa: This is another team from the MVC vying for a spot in the tourney. They certainly can play, as they have wins over Iowa State, Southern Illinois, Wichita State, and University of Missouri Kansas City. I think that Southern Illinois is the only team from the MVC that is a lock. Creighton, Wichita State and Northern Iowa all have a shot at getting in, and its going to come down to the conference tournament. I can't wait.

Saint Joseph's, Gardner and Webb, and Monmouth (N.J.) were picked by at least one of the analysts. For these three teams, check out my Monday post, where I explained why I do not think these teams will make the tournament.

Matt

Predicting the NCAA Tourament Round 5

2005-02-28T14:44:00.000-05:00

Over 300 teams are in Division 1 college basketball, but each year only 65 teams are invited to the Big Dance. This year, more than ever, the mid majors are making a strong push to get at large bids. These are my picks for the week. To make these picks I considered the following: won loss record (overall and in conference), SOS, record vs. 1-25, 26-50 and 51-100 in RPI, non-conference SOS, and RPI among other things. Needless to say, a lot of time and information goes into making these picks.

The last 10 picks to get in were in no particular order: Georgia Tech, Iowa State, Houston, West Virginia, Indiana, Minnesota, Buffalo, New Mexico, St. Mary's (CA) and UTEP

The last 10 picks out in no particular order were: Virginia Tech, Memphis, UAB, Saint Joseph's, Utah State, Creighton, Akron, Kent State, Northern Iowa, Boston University

New teams that were added this week are noted in bold. Also, one team is in italics, because they have already made the tournament, because the Ivy League does not have a conference tournament to settle the automatic bid, instead giving it to the regular season champ of the conference, which was Penn. 4 other conference automatic bids will be settled by this time next week as the Big South, Atlantic Sun, Southern, and Ohio Valley will all have their tournament champions by Monday.

Big East (8): UConn, Syracuse, Pitt, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Villanova, BC, West Virginia
Big 12 (6): Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas, Texas Tech, Iowa State
ACC (5): North Carolina, Wake Forest, Duke, Maryland, Georgia Tech
SEC (5): Kentucky, Alabama, Florida, Mississippi State, LSU
Conference USA (5): Charlotte, Louisville, Cincinnati, DePaul, Houston
Big 10 (5): Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan State, Minnesota, Indiana
Pac 10 (4): Stanford, Washington, Arizona, UCLA
Mid-American Conference (2): Miami (Ohio), Buffalo
Mountain West Conference (2): Utah, New Mexico
West Coast Conference (2): Gonzaga, St. Mary's
Western Athletic Conference (2): Nevada, UTEP
America East (1): Vermont
Atlantic 10 (1): George Washington
Atlantic Sun (1): Central Florida
Big Sky (1): Portland State
Big West (1): Pacific
Colonial Athletic Association (1): Old Dominion
Horizon (1): Wisconsin Milwaukee
Ivy (1): Penn
Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference (1): Rider
Mid-Continent Conference (1): Oral Roberts
Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference (1): Coppin State
Missouri Valley Conference (1): Southern Illinois
Northeast Conference (1): Farleigh Dickinson
Ohio Valley Conference (1): Tennessee Tech
Patriot League (1): Holy Cross
Southern Conference (1): Davidson
Southland Conference (1): SE Louisiana
Southwestern Athletic Conference (1): Alabama A&M
Sun Belt Conference (1): Denver

Teams that have been eliminated from the tourney since last week:

Miami: The Hurricanes beat Florida State last week, but then lost a huge game against Georgia Tech on Saturday. Miami lost by 4 points, and they are now 7-8 in conference, and 16-10 overall. They have one remaining game at Duke this Thursday, and then the ACC tournament. Assuming a loss on Thursday, the Hurricanes are going to need at least 2 wins in the ACC tourney to sneak in the Big Dance.

Virginia Tech: I so much wanted to include them in my predictions because I think that as a team they are a great story. However, getting blown out against N.C. State when they had 7 days to prepare for them is unacceptable. If they can win their last two games against Clemson and Maryland, and then win at least 1 game in the ACC tourney, I think they will be dancing. Otherwise, Seth Greenberg and his team will be in the NIT.

Marquette: All you need to know about this non-selection is that Travis Diener is out for the year. As horrible as it sounds, Marquette does not stand a chance at getting into the NCAA tourney without their leading scorer. He was their leader, the offense was run through him, and he made everyone around him better. Without Diener, this team will struggle.

Memphis: The Tigers had their chance last week to prove to the whole nation on ESPN primetime that they deserved an at large bid. Instead, they blew a lead at home against Louisville, and did not make a field goal over the last 14 minutes of the game. Combine that game with their loss earlier in the week against Charlotte, and you have a team that needs to win their final two games against St. Louis and Cincinnati to get in.

Saint Joseph's: As nice as their record in the A-10 is at 12-2, their record out of conference is just as bad at 3-8. With a loss to URI on Saturday, this team is in need of a big win soon. Luckily, they play George Washington on ESPN2 tomorrow night, and the Colonials are the favorite right now to get the bid from the A-10. Saint Joseph's better have something to prove to me, and the rest of the nation tomorrow night, or else they will continue to stay on the outside looking in.

Gardner and Webb: They still have a very good shot at getting into their tourney, but they must win their conference championship, because the Atlantic Sun is not going to get an at large bid. The reason I predicted that as of today Central Florida would get the bid from this conference, is because even though these two teams are tied in the standings for the lead, Central Florida beat Gardner and Webb last week.

Monmouth (N.J.): Different team, same scenario. Monmouth lost to Farleigh Dickinson on February 19th, so even though they are tied for the lead in conference at 13-4 with Farleigh Dickinson, I predicted UFD, because of the outcome of that game, among other things.

LA Lafayette: Losing both of your games in the week, is not a good plan in the competitive Sun Belt Conference.

Matt

Viewing Guide for the Week of Feb.28-March 6

2005-02-27T18:56:00.000-05:00

Herein, lies the sporting events that will captivate you if only only dare and watch them. Take the risk and watch some college basketball, and you shall not be disappointed.

Monday

College Basketball

Pitt at BC 7pm ESPN
This is BC's last big game before the Big East Tourney. BC got lucky as they only had to play Pitt, Syracuse, and UConn once. Look for Carl Krauser to have a big game.

Oklahoma at Texas 9pm ESPN
In football they call this game "The Red River Shootout." No matter what sporting event, games between these two teams are always a big deal, especially when both of these teams are likely headed to the tourney.

Northern Iowa at Wichita State 9:00
If Wichita State can win this game, I think they are likely going to be in the tourney.

New Mexico at UNLV 11:59 ESPN
You gotta love watching MWC games at midnight on Big Monday's. Here is a chance for most of the nation to see Danny Granger, a forward that is expected by NBAdraft.net to be picked by Charlotte in the second round.

NBA

San Antonio at Cleveland 7:00
If Bruce Bowen is one of the best defenders in the NBA, I would love to be able to see him try and stop Lebron.

Tuesday

College Basketball

Saint Joseph's at George Washington 7pm ESPN2
Who thought St. Joe's would be this good after losing both Jameer Nelson, and Delonte West to the NBA? I sure did not, as St. Joe's is 12-1 in the A 10, and has a decent chance at getting into the tourney.

Mississippi State at Arkansas 7:05 ESPN
A couple of weeks ago Mississippi State was a lock to be in the tourney. Now after losing 3 of their last five games, they are no longer a lock for the tourney, and could really help themselves out by getting a win on national TV against a good Razorbacks team.

Indiana at Wisconsin 9pm ESPN
For a few weeks, people have been saying that Indiana is on the bubble. After starting off the season slow, Indiana has played better in conference play, and stand at 8-5 in the Big 10. A win at Wisconsin would be huge for their tournament chances.

VA Tech at Clemson 9pm
I think VA Tech is on the bubble. Some people think they have no shot at the tourney. They must win this game at Clemson, in order to even be considered to be on the bubble.

NBA

Seattle at Indiana 7pm
Two of the best shooters in the NBA in Ray Allen and Reggie Miller face each for what might be their last time.

Wednesday

College Basketball

Georgia Tech at Wake Forest 7pm ESPN
GT still needs some help in order to get into the tournament, and a win at Wake gives them a great shot at getting in the tourney.

Georgetown at UConn 7:30
Three straight losses has put the Hoyas back on the bubble. UConn on the other hand has been on an excellent run, winning 7 of their last 8, and the only loss was to North Carolina. This is a tough test for a young Hoyas team, but it is a game that means a lot to their tournament chances.

Missouri at Iowa State 8:00
Iowa State started off at 0-5 in the Big 12, then won their next 7 games in conference, and since that huge win in Kansas last week, they have lost to Texas A&M and Nebraska. They need to win their final two games against Missouri and Colorado, and then win their first game in the Big 12 tournament to feel safe about their tourney chances.

DePaul at UAB 8:30
UAB is just 2-4 in their last 6 games, and could use a win against DePaul which has the always dangerous Quemont Greer and Drake Diener (cousin of Marquette player Travis Diener).

NBA

Los Angeles Lakers at Boston Celtics 7:30 FSN
Antoine's first game back in green is against the Lakers and Kobe. The Celts need a win to repay L.A. for the game they lost against them last week out in L.A.

Thursday

College Basketball

Charlotte at Louisville 7pm ESPN2
Do I dare call a game from Conference USA the game of the week? If this isn't the most important game of the week, it certainly ranks up there. Charlotte and Louisville both have identical 12-2 records in conference, and this will determine first place in the conference.

Oregon State at UCLA 10:30

UCLA had a huge win today against ND in South Bend. The Bruins need to win their last two games of the season against the Beavers and the Oregon Ducks in order to feel secure about an NCAA at large bid.

Pacific at Cal State Fullerton 10:05
Could a team like Cal State Fullerton get an NCAA at large bid? As crazy as that sounds, it's not out of the question. At 17-8 and 11-5 in conference they have a chance. If they can beat Pacific, a team that has won 19 straight games, and then at least get to the finals in the Big West tourney, they have a small chance at making the big dance. But, they must win this game.

NBA

Detroit at Phoenix 10:30 TNT
The defending champions visit a team that could win it all this year. The Suns have got deeper with the additions of Walter McCarty, and Jim Jackson and could contest the Spurs for the Western Conference in May.

MLB

Minnesota Twins at Boston Red Sox 7pm NESN
After 86 years the Sox are World Champions. Sox fans all over the world hope that their team can repeat and that 8 months from now, we will be back to back champions.

Friday

NBA

Sacramento at Miami 8pm ESPN
The Kings without Chris Webber will struggle to stay competitive in the West. Look for Shaq to control the paint in this game.

Dallas at Los Angeles Lakers 10:30 ESPN
Dallas always seems to make a trade at the deadline, and this year they picked up Keith Van Horn. This team is so deep and talented, and if they would learn to play defense they could contend in the West.

Saturday

College Basketball

Louisville at DePaul 12pm ESPN
A win by the Blue Demons would be huge in terms of their seeding for the tournament. The Cardinals will be coming off a tough game Thursday night against Charlotte and could be tired. I predict that DePaul will win in a mini-upset.

Pitt at Notre Dame 2pm CBS
3 weeks ago Pitt won a very tough game against ND by 2. The Fighting Irish will look for revenge on Senior Day in South Bend.

Syracuse at UConn 4pm CBS
After losing in early February to UConn at the Carrier Dome, the Orangemen will look to win their last game of the season before the Big East tourney. In order for the Cuse' to win this game, they must get scoring from players not named Hakim or G-Mac. Would the real Josh Pace please stand up.

Arizona at Arizona State 6pm FSN
This could be Ike Diogu's last game at home, and the last chance for many people to see him play in a college uniform. Diogu is a junior who has had a tremendous three years, and he is a candidate to be a first team All-American. A win over Arizona would be a huge step if Arizona State is going to have any chance at all of making the tourney.

Sunday

College Basketball

Illinois at Ohio State 12pm CBS
Illinois will try to finish the regular season undefeated, but the Buckeyes will be pumped up as they cannot participate in the NCAA tourney because of a violation, and this game is basically their national championship.

Kentucky at Florida 2pm CBS
When these two teams meet, there is no need for me to tell you why to watch this game.

Duke at UNC 4pm CBS
The biggest rivalry in college basketball is back. In the first game, Duke survived and beat UNC 71-70. Look for a different ending to the game this time in Chapel Hill.

Wake Forest at N.C. State 6pm FSN
N.C. State absolutely needs to win this game, and a couple games in the ACC tournament in order to even be considered for an at large NCAA bid. Otherwise the Wolfpack are headed for the NIT.

Matt

The Top 5 Point Guards in America are....

2005-02-25T11:21:00.000-05:00

Where to do you start when writing an article like this? There are so many talented and exciting point guards in college basketball, that it has been very hard to narrow the list down to just 5. I'm sure some people after reading this article will disagree with the 5 selections that I made. But that's what makes this type of article fun. There is so much room for interpretation and it is interesting to hear opinions' on who somebody thinks is a top 5 point guard in the country. So, without further ado, here is the list:

5. Travis Diener, Marquette
My heart just dropped when I heard that Diener had broke his hand in practice and that he would be out for the rest of the season. Anybody who caught even a glimpse of the Cincinnati vs. Marquette game last night could tell how much they miss their point guard. Diener is not a prototypical point guard in that he is not extremely quick, but he has excellent basketball instincts. He knows how to control a game. He knows when to run, and when to set up the half court offense. There might not be a smarter guard in America in terms of basketball sense. Diener was averaging 19.7 points a game, and 7 dimes a game when he got hurt earlier this week. He also shoots 40 percent from behind the arc. Diener might not be a high draft pick, because he does not have the speed and quickness that other guards possess. NBAdraft.net has Diener getting picked 55th in the draft this coming June. Teams that are picking before the Pistons at the 55th spot would be smart to not let a guy with this talent slip that low in the draft.

4. John Lucas III, Oklahoma State
John Lucas transferred to Oklahoma State in 2003 after playing two years at Baylor. Lucas and other players on that Baylor team were allowed to transfer and would not have to sit out a year due to the scandal in which Patrick Dennehy was killed by teammate Carlton Dotson. Lucas decided to transfer to O.K. State, while his teammates at Baylor, Lawrence Roberts and Kenny Taylor transferred to Mississippi State and Texas, respectively. Lucas also survived a lot in his childhood having grown up the son of John Lucas II, who was an NBA player and coach. He was also an alcoholic, but has now been sober for over 20 years. That did not make the comments and ridiculing stop when John Lucas III was going through school. All of this turbulence seems to have made Lucas stronger. In his first year as the point guard for the Cowboys, he led them to the Final Four. He is the leader of a veteran team, and his team is poised to make another Final Four run, especially with the emergence of freshman JamesOn Curry, who is now starting for the team. Lucas contributes just under 16 points and 5 assists a game, and although he is small in size (5'11) he plays with no fear, and is a guard that is just so fun to watch.

3. Raymond Felton, North Carolina
I know Tar Heel fans are going to be upset that Felton is only third on this list, and that another ACC point guard is ranked ahead of him. I love Felton just as much as any other college basketball fan, but his turnovers are what prompted me to rank him at #3 instead of #2 or #1. Felton averages 12 points, 7 assists, and 2 steals a game. The scary thing for Tar Heels fans is that he also coughs up the ball 3.6 times a game. Most of the nation saw this firsthand a couple of weeks ago when North Carolina played Duke. Felton had eight turnovers in the game, and did not take the open shot with 5 seconds left as he should have, and basically cost North Carolina the game. Besides that one shortfall, Felton is all that you could ask for in a point guard. He is super quick, has a nasty dribble, and he can take it to the rack. He shoots the 3 well, knows how to get his teammates involved, and you can see him directing traffic out on the court anytime you watch an NC game. This Sunday he will be playing against another great ACC point guard that did not make the list in John Gilchrist. That game is very important if the Terps want to make the tournament, and the game can be seen on FSN at 5:30. With a great game and point guard matchup on the line, I think I will have to study for my test later that night, because that game needs to be watched.

2. Deron Williams, Illinois
The thing I love about Deron is that he is so unselfish. His coaches have been preaching at him since the beginning of the season to take more shots, because sometimes he is just too unselfish. In any case, Deron is a guy that I love to watch play for this very reason. He can a score a single point in the game, and still have a huge impact on the outcome. Case in point: Sunday February 6th against Indiana. Deron was 0-7 from the field, and only managed to get on the scoreboard via one free throw. Does this mean he had a bad game? Absolutely not! Deron had 11 assists in the game, most of them setting up fellow guards Dee Brown and Luther Head. From the AP recap of the game,

"Deron Williams couldn't get one shot to fall. A lot of his passes, though, were right on target.

Williams had assists on Illinois' first seven baskets and finished with 11 as the top-ranked Illini remained unbeaten with a 60-47 victory over Indiana on Sunday. It was the lowest-scoring game of the season for Illinois (23-0, 9-0 Big Ten), which held the Hoosiers to their second-lowest output of the season.

``We got a 'W,' That's all I care about,'' said Williams, who was 0-for-7 from the field. His only point was a free throw with 2:15 remaining. ``I just didn't shoot the ball well. I still got my teammates involved. That's what I try to do.''

If that does not characterize the type of player Deron is, I do not know what will. He is the ultimate team player on the undefeated #1 team in the country, and for that reason, among others, he is #2 on my top 5 point guard list.
1. Chris Paul, Wake Forest
The youngest is sometimes the best. Paul, who is only a sophomore is the best point guard in the country, hands down. He is not the leading scorer on the Demon Deacons, but he scores when the team needs him the most. He is a driver, slasher, point guard type who can do it all. He shoots over 52 percent on 3,s, runs the break like a pro, and always come to play in the big games. Last Sunday, Paul scored 27 points, and 7 assists in Wake Forest's loss at Duke. In order for Paul to lead his team to the National Championship, he and his teammates must buy into to the saying, "defense wins championships." Last Sunday they scored 92 points and lost, because they gave up 102. This has become characteristic of the Demon Deacons, as they sometimes lapse and only try to outscore people. Although they have tons of firepower, and an excellent point guard in Paul, they need to buckle down on defense or else they will not be winning the championship. Regardless of the team defense, Paul is the best point guard in the country, and he would be my choice if I had to start a team today, and I could pick any point guard in the country. You can't really go wrong with any of these point guards on this list, but in terms of quickness, ability, basketball skills and potential, nobody has more than Paul.

Everybody who reads this should know that these are not the only guards I considered for this list. Some of the points guards that were considered for this list but did not get chosen in no particular order are: Marcus Williams of UConn, Gerry McNamara of Syracuse, John Gilchrist of Maryland, Jarrett Jack of Georgia Tech, Daniel Gibson of Texas, Aaron Miles of Kansas, Drew Lavender of Oklahoma, Chris Hernandez of Stanford, Carl Krauser of Pitt, Chris Thomas of Notre Dame, and Anthony Roberson of Florida. It was very hard to narrow this list down to just 5 point guards in the country. All of the players just listed are very good, and I am sure that some of you disagree with some of the selections I made for the top 5. I am looking forward to hearing your comments or criticism on why somebody should have been included in this list, but wasn't.

Matt

Comparing The Brackets

2005-02-22T23:48:00.000-05:00

As many of you know who visit the blog regularly, every Tuesday I take a look at what the experts have predicted for the field of 65, and compare their predictions with mine. So, without further ado, here are the links to Joe Lunardi's picks, as well as Bracketology's 101 picks, and Michael Lazarus picks. Michael Lazarus as of Tuesday night at 11:30 did not have his picks up yet on FoxSports.com. Therefore, I am not going to compare my picks to his this week, because I want to post this now.

Joe Lunardi had 4 teams that he picked that I did not and they are UTEP, Minnesota, Wichita State, and Farleigh Dickinson.

Craig and Chris from Bracketology 101 had 6 picks which differed from mine and they are Minnesota, NC State, Creighton, Farleigh Dickinson, Buffalo, and Denver.

I examined all of these teams while making my selections and let me explain why they did not make the field of 65.

UTEP: They lost at Pacific on Bracket Buster Saturday by 7 points. Right now, I think the WCC is only strong enough to get one team into the tourney. Nevada will definitely get in, because they have had a great season. UTEP has 3 remaining games all at home and if they win those 3, and then win at least 1 game in their conference tourney, I think they are in.

Minnesota: The Golden Gophers had a tough week having to face Michigan State and Ohio State. They beat Ohio State by 2, and lost to Michigan State by 19. My problem with the Golden Gophers is that they are only 7-6 in the weak Big Ten. They have 2 games which when you look at the Big Ten standings may not seem tough, but they really are. They have to play Iowa at home and then travel to Purdue. When they travel to Purdue, it will be Senior Day at the game for the Boilermakers. Also, it will be Gene Keady's last home game as Purdue's coach. If they win both of those games, I think they will be in next week.

Wichita State: I am sorry but losing your last 3 games does not bode well to get an at large spot in my predictions, even if the losses were against good teams. Wichita State lost to Bradley (12-12, 5-10 in conference), and then lost to Creighton, and then to the leader of the MAC, Miami (Ohio). This team has a huge game against MVC leader Southern Illinois on Saturday. I cannot wait to see the outcome of this game. They won by 2 the last time these two teams faced, but this time the game is at Southern Illinois with first place in the MVC up for grabs.

Farleigh Dickinson: This team is in second place in their conference, but because of their win against first place Monmouth (N.J.) last week, analysts are picking them for the field of 65. They are still a game behind Monmouth in the standings, and the two teams split the season series. Both teams have 3 games left against teams they should beat, which means one thing: the automatic bid for this conference is going to come down to the conference tournament. Plain and simple.

NC State: This team is only 5-7 in the ACC, and yet some people are still picking them for the field of 65 (I almost picked them myself). Why is this? Well, because they are a good team that has beat some very good opponents this year (Georgia Tech and Maryland twice, VA Tech). They have two absolutely critical games this week against North Carolina and VA Tech. If they can keep the Carolina game somewhat respectable and then beat VA Tech, they might get into my predictions next week, even with a record of 6-8 in the ACC.

Creighton: Talk about giving love to the mid majors! I do not see Creighton getting in right now as they stand at 17-10 overall and 8-7 in the MVC. They have beaten Wichita State twice, Ohio State, Xavier and Northern Iowa. But for me to consider them, they must win their next 3 games (including a tough one against Illinois State) and then win a few games in their conference tournament. Then, and only then, will I pick them.

Buffalo: The MAC might get two teams into the tournament, but in order for Buffalo to get in I feel they must win their final 3 games, including a matchup that will determine who gets second place in the MAC against Akron. Miami (Ohio) looks more and more like a sure thing out of the MAC. Buffalo has some good wins, but they haven't done enough yet to warrant a bid.

Denver: Conference tournament. Those two words explain how you know which team will make it out of the Sun Belt Conference. LA Lafayette is currently in first place in the west division and has the best conference record. Denver has beaten them twice this season, but is in second place. In reality, it does not really matter what their records are in conference, but the bid from the conference is going to be determined by who wins the conference tournament.

Matt

Predicting the NCAA Tourney Round 4

2005-02-21T11:31:00.000-05:00

These are the 65 teams that I feel will make the tournament, if the selection committee had to make all their decisions on who's in and who's out, today. New teams that have been added this week are noted in bold.

Big East (7): Boston College, Villanova, Notre Dame, Syracuse, Pitt, Georgetown, UConn
ACC (7): Duke, North Carolina, Wake Forest, Maryland, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, Miami
Conference USA (7): Louisville, Charlotte, Memphis, Cincinnati, DePaul, Marquettee, Houston
Big 12 (6): Oklahoma State, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Iowa State, Texas
SEC (5): Kentucky, Florida, LSU, Alabama, Mississippi State
Pac 10 (4): Washington, Arizona, Stanford UCLA
Big 10 (3): Illinois, Michigan State, Wisconsin
A10 (2): Saint Joseph's, George Washington
WCC (2): St. Marys (CA), Gonzaga
America East (1): Vermont
Atlantic Sun (1): Gardner and Webb
Big Sky (1): Portland State
Big South (1): Winthrop
Big West (1): Pacific
Colonial Athletic Association (1): Old Dominion
Horizon League (1): Wisconsin Milwaukee
Ivy League (1): Penn
Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference (1): Niagara
Mid Continent Conference (1): Oral Roberts
Mid-American Conference (1): Miami (Ohio)
Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference (1): Coppin State
Missouri Valley Conference (1): Southern Illinois
Mountain West (1): Utah
Northeast (1): Monmouth (N.J.)
Ohio Valley Conference (1): Tennessee Tech
Patriot League (1): Holy Cross
Southern Conference (1): Davidson
Southland Conference (1): SE Louisiana
Southwestern Athletic Conference (1): Alabama A&M
Sun Belt Conference (1): LA Lafayette
WAC (1): Nevada

Teams that have been eliminated from the tourney since last week:

UAB: 4 straight losses in conference does not bode well for an at large bid.

Minnesota: Losing big to Michigan State, and then barely beating Ohio State did this team in. They certainly have a great chance of being in next week if they beat Iowa and Purdue this week.

Utah State: Losing to Pacific in a game they should have won, and then losing to Cal State Fullerton did this team in. They need to win their last 3 games, and then make some noise in the Big West tournament to get in.

Wichita State: 3 straight losses means no bid for Wichita State this week. They have two huge games coming up: Saturday against Southern Illinois and then on Monday vs. Northern Iowa. If they can win those 2 games, they will be in good position.

Samford:They have lost 3 of their last 4 games, and lost on Saturday to Tennessee Tech, which now leads the conference.

Denver:Losing one game to a team that is below .500 in the conference was enough for Denver to slid out of my predictions in the competitive Sun Belt Conference.

Matt

Viewing Guide for the Week of Feb. 21-27

2005-02-20T18:38:00.000-05:00

These are some of the games that I will be watching and keeping track of this week, and I suggest that you do the same.

Monday

Game 1 of the 2004 World Series St. Louis Cardinals at Boston Red Sox 6pm NESN
This game was an ugly game as the Red Sox committed 4 errors, two by Manny in the eighth inning, and somehow still win the game. Mark Bellhorn who a few days before this game was getting crushed by the media hit the game winning HR in the bottom of the eighth.

Notre Dame at UConn 7pm ESPN
Last time these two teams played, Marcus Williams had 16 assists for UConn, but missed a layup with under 20 seconds left, and the Huskies lost the game. I think UConn will definitely win this game, because they are the better team, and this time the game is being played at Storrs.

Kansas at Oklahoma 9pm ESPN
Kansas has lost their last two games. There is no way that Bill Self lets his Jayhawks lose 3 straight.

Utah at New Mexico 9pm
Can the Utes go undefeated in the MWC? If they beat the Lobos in the Pit, it looks like that will go throughout the season without a loss in conference.

Tuesday

Game 2 of the 2004 World Series Cardinals at Red Sox 7pm NESN
Curt Schilling pitches 6 miraculous innings, and he accomplishes what he came to Boston to do: win a World Series.

Boston Celtics at Los Angeles Lakers 10:30 FSN
20 years ago this was a HUGE rivalry. Now, with both teams struggling to stay above .500 it does not mean as much. In any case, I always love to see the Celts beat the Lakers.

Texas at Texas Tech 8pm ESPN2
Texas has really had trouble winning games since losing P.J. Tucker for the season due to him being academically ineligible. Going to play Texas Tech, will not change that.

Alabama at LSU 9pm ESPN
LSU had two huge wins last week against Florida and Mississippi State. The team that I was not convinced for real last week, has proven to me otherwise.

North Carolina at N.C. State 8pm
Julius Hodge needs to carry his team to a victory over the Tar Heels if the Wolfpack expect to get into the tourney.

Wednesday

Duke at Georgia Tech 7pm ESPN
The Yellow Jackets are firmly on the bubble right now. A win against the Blue Devils would add a big win to their resume.

Memphis at Charlotte 7:30
Memphis has come back from the dead to actually be a force in Conference USA. A win at Charlotte makes their chances of making the tourney almost a sure thing.

BC at Villanova 9pm ESPN2
Villanova is one team that nobody wants to face. After beating unbeaten Kansas last month by 20 points, they showed that they are a team that can beat anybody in the country. BC better beware of the Cats'.

Memphis at Washington 7pm
Who thought that both of these NBA teams would have 30 wins at the All Star Break? Certainly, not me.

Thursday

Game 3 of the 2004 World Series Sox at Cardinals 7pm NESN
Pedro's last game as a Red Sox was a masterpiece, and I recommend you set your VCR's to tape one of the best pitchers who ever pitched for the Red Sox in his last game.

Wisconsin at Michigan State 7pm ESPN
Last time these two teams faced MSU had a comfortable lead with a minute left, only to blow it and see Wisconsin win. The results of this game will be different.

Marquette at Cincinnati 9pm ESPN2
The Bearcats are a very physical team, and if Marquette wants to get into the tourney they must get to .500 in conference play. Right now, they are 5-7 in the CUSA.

Arizona State at Washington 10:30 FSN
Arizona State is one game below .500 in the Pac 10. A win at Washington puts them in the tourney.

Sacramento at Dallas 9:30 TNT
This game showcases two teams that love to run, shoot, and forget about defense. Get the scoreboard ready, cuz in this game both teams are going to score way over 100 points.

Friday

Boston at Utah 9pm FSN
Utah has never been the same since the retirement of John Stockton, and since Karl Malone left. The Celts need this game to prove they can win on the road at a tough arena.

Detroit at LA Lakers 10:30 ESPN
These two teams played in the NBA finals last year. Did you remember that? With the trading of Shaq this game will be significantly different than when these two teams faced each other last June.

Saturday

Game 4 of the 2004 World Series Red Sox at Cardinals 7pm NESN
"Red Sox fans have longed to hear it. The Boston Red Sox are World Champions!" I just can't hear that sentence enough from Joe Buck. Set your VCR's to tape a game that I will watch for the next 60 years of my life.

Kentucky at Alabama 1:30 CBS
Alabama is a team that has a ton of firepower. I expect the Crimson Tide to beat the Wildcats in which some will consider an upset, but really Alabama might be the better overall team in this game.

Connecticut at Pitt 3:45 CBS
The first time these teams met Pitt came back after being down by more than 15 points in the first half. The Huskies will try to get revenge in this game.

Arizona at Washington 4pm FSN
I have been looking forward to this rematch since the second the first game between these two teams ended. Both teams love to run, and play fast break offense. Washington needs to shut down Salim Stoudamire in order to have a chance to win the game.

VA Tech at N.C. State 4pm
Two teams that are firmly on the bubble play in a game that has huge implications.

Phoenix at Dallas 8:30
If you need a reason to watch this game, well then I guess you don't watch enough of the NBA.

Sunday

UCLA at Notre Dame 2pm CBS
UCLA needs to win this game much more than Notre Dame does. If UCLA can get a win against a team that has beaten Connecticut and BC, their chances of getting into the tourney will be pretty good.

Oklahoma State at Kansas 4pm CBS
First place in the Big 12 is up for grabs. Nuff' said.

Boston at Phoenix 8pm FSN
Phoenix scored 74 points in the first half when they came to the Fleet Center last month. The Celts have to slow down the Suns in order to have a prayer in this game. It also gives Celtics fans a chance to see WALTA, who was traded to Phoenix last month.

Matt

G Mac, JamesOn and Savannah State doesn't win a game

2005-02-18T16:27:00.000-05:00

Kyle Veltrop argues that with the game on the line, there is no player he would rather have take the shot than Gerry McNamara. I love G Mac, but I'll take my chances with Salim.

Savannah State has done what only one other team in the past 50 years has done, in losing all 28 of their games. Randy Hill has the story.

The player of the year in each conference is...

Looking forward to upsets in the tourney? Look no further than these teams

Arguably the best high school basketball player last year sold dope, got caught, and had his scholarship taken away by North Carolina. Now starting for Oklahoma State, JamesOn Curry is the type of diaper dandy that I love to see play. This article is a must read.

Top 10 games of the weekend according to Gregg Doyel

According to the poll I had on this blog a few days ago, 48% of you thought that the Texas Tech vs. Kansas game was the best game of the year so far. I agree with you.

Salim vs. Redick update from last night's games:

Salim 7 of 14 FG, and 4 of 6 on 3's, 22 points in the Wildcats 25 point win over the Ducks

Redick 7 of 16 FG, and 3 of 8 on 3's, 19 points in Duke's loss to Virginia Tech

Matt

Salim or Redick: That is the Question

2005-02-17T13:04:00.000-05:00

In his latest column at CBS Sportsline, Gregg Doyel rants about Lute Olson and how Lute should keep his mouth shut instead of consistently making comparisons between J.J. Redick and Salim Stoudamire. It is obvious and very true that many of the media people love Redick for his shooting ability and how he has carried Duke this season. Duke is on TV basically every week, which allows the members of the media as well as college basketball fans to see J.J. Redick at his best. Now I know that Redick is a great shooter. But is Redick the best shooter in the country? And is it bad that Lute Olson continues to stick up for his senior shooting guard Salim Stoudamire? I tend to disagree with the column by Doyel and let me tell you why.

Lute Olson has a right that every human being has, and that is of free speech. He has the right to support Salim Stoudamire and call him the best shooter in the country if he wants too. I do not see why Doyel thinks that is such a bad crime to do such a thing. When Mack Brown spoke out in late November and said that his team deserved a BCS bowl game, some people in the media tended to think that it was wrong of him to do so. I was of this opinion at first too, before I realized that there was nothing wrong with doing that. Brown thought his team deserved a BCS bowl game, so that is what he said. Lute Olson thinks Salim is the best shooter in the country, and that is exactly what he said. What is so wrong with that? Am I missing something here?

When you look at the stats, Salim is the best shooter in the country. From the Sportsline article,

"There's a bit of information (our publicist) shared with me about Redick being the best shooter in the country," Olson began. If he hit 71 consecutive field goals, he'd reach Salim's field goal percentage shooting. If Redick made 53 consecutive 3-pointers, he'd tie Salim for 3-point field-goal percentage. How in the world can somebody continue to go on TV and say Redick is the greatest shooter in the country?"

The one person in particular that Lute is referring to is Dick Vitale. Dickie V is a big fan of Redick and he always raves about Redick. Watch the next Duke game on ESPN that Vitale is announcing and you will recognize this within a few minutes. Some people are of the opinion that Vitale has always been a Duke supporter and that he now has fallen in love with Redick over his 3 years at Duke. I would estimate that Vitale has announced at least 5 of Duke's games this year. I know for a fact that he announced both Maryland games, Wake Forest and North Carolina games. I am sure that he has done other Duke games that I have forgotten, or that I may not have watched. I do not think that Vitale has done any Arizona games so far this year (correct me if I'm wrong). The Pac 10 has a schedule where they play games on Thursdays and Saturdays and most of those games are carried by Fox Sports Net. So, while it is Dickie V's opinion that Redick is the best shooter in the country, I am curious to find out if he right in making that statement.

Both Redick and Salim are great players. Both can shoot the 3 as well as drive to the hoop. But when making a comparison it helps to look at the numbers. And if you trust the numbers they prove that Salim is a better 3-point shooter. Some people might say that Redick gets more attention from opposing teams, but that is definitely not true. Both Redick and Salim lead their teams in scoring, and opposing teams come into games knowing that they have to shut down these players in order to have a chance to win. There are many quotes out there from coaches and announcers who favor one of these players or another. One quote comes from USC interim coach Jim Saia who was mentioned in this article as saying,

"On Thursday night, USC interim coach Jim Saia said Stoudamire might be the best college basketball shooter ever."

At ESPN, they keep track of the top 25 players that lead college basketball in 3-point shooting percentage. Salim is leading college basketball shooting just a little under 55 percent for the season from beyond the arc. Where is J.J. Redick on this list? He is nowhere to be found, because to be in the top 25 in 3-point shooting percentage a player must be shooting .485 from downtown. What is Redick's percentage, you ask? Redick is shooting .417 on 3-point shooting for the year.

All I am trying to point out in this article is that if your going to make a statement, such as the one Dick Vitale has made on many occasions it helps to be able to back it up. Vitale is entitled to have his opinion, and many other people in the media agree with him. There is no question that Redick is an amazing shooter, and that he has range that some of us only wish we had. But is he the best shooter in the country? That is a question that can be debated for hours and hours.

What I recommend for those who might have seen only one of these players shoot, and not the other is this: watch Oregon State at Arizona at 4:30, and then Wake Forest at Duke at 6:30 all on FSN this Sunday. Now I realize that to properly answer the question of who is a better shooter it would be better to watch every single game of both of these players, but in the sake of time this is a good place to start. Also, one of these players could have an off night on Sunday and therefore lead some people to believe that that player is not as good as the other. What I am hoping for is a Duke vs. Arizona game in the tournament. Not only would this be a great game to watch, it would help us settle the debate of who is a better shooter. These players would be going against each other, and would probably be guarding each other every time down court. That would be a dream come true for college basketball fans, as they would see two of the best shooters face off against each other, in a winner goes on, loser goes home type of game. Until that game happens, this subject is open for debate. So as I end this article, I'm curious to as to who you think is the better shooter: Salim or Redick? I look forward to reading your comments on this interesting, and easily debatable subject.

Matt

Comparing the Brackets

2005-02-15T17:24:00.000-05:00

Every Tuesday I take a look at what some of the experts have predicted for the field of 65 and compare their predictions with mine. Joe Lunardi's picks from ESPN can be found here, and the site Bracketology 101 has picks every week and they can be found here. Michael Lazarus of Fox Sports picks can be found here.

Joe Lunardi has three picks that differ from my own and they are Kent State, Stanford, and LSU.

Craig and Chris from Bracketology 101 also have three picks which differ from my own and they are Boston University, Stanford, and Western Kentucky.

Michael Lazarus has three picks which differ from mine and they are Sam Houston State, UL Lafayette, and LSU.

I am going to take a look at these 7 teams and explain why they do not make the tourney.

Stanford: They had one game last week against California and beat them 71-56. This really does not mean anything as Cal does not have a good team this year. Stanford now stands at 13-9 and they are 7-5 in the conference. Dan Grunfield who is the leading scorer for the Cardinals was lost for the season after he hurt his knee in the second half. The injury will require surgery, but no date has been set yet. With 6 games remaining in their season, and 4 of them at home the Cardinals have a good shot at convincing me they belong in my predictions. They play USC and UCLA at home this week. If they beat UCLA, which is a very young, but talented team, I think they will be dancing come this time next week.

Kent State: This team has a few things going for them. They have a very good RPI at 39 and their SOS (strength of schedule) is 58. Both are very respectable numbers for a mid major. Usually the bubble teams such as Kent State have RPI's somewhere between 30 and 70 so they are in the right neighborhood. Kent State has also beaten some worthy opponents in Creighton, Florida State and Miami of Ohio (who by the way happens to be 1st in the MAC). They also came very close to beating BC in December, but lost by two points. The reason I did not pick Kent State is because I think the MAC will only get one team into the tourney, and as of right now I think that team is Miami of Ohio. I hold the right to change my opinion on this in the upcoming weeks.

LSU: Yes, its true that LSU is 6-4 in the always tough SEC conference, but when you look at their schedule, who have they beaten? Their 3 best wins are Arkansas, Ohio State, and Mississippi State (whom I think is vastly overrated). Their next 3 games are against Mississippi State, Florida, and Arkansas. If they win 2 of those games, I will look at them much more favorably then I do now, and they will be in my bracket.

Boston University: They had a huge win over Vermont on Saturday, which was the Catamounts first loss in the American East. Still, I do not see how this conference is going to get two bids, and I think that Vermont will be the only team in the tourney from the American East.

Western Kentucky: Craig and Chris from Bracketology 101 pick Western Kentucky to win the Sun Belt Conference, while I am still sticking with Denver. Denver lost to Western Kentucky on the road last week 84-79. Either of these teams could be in the tourney and it is going to come down to whoever wins the conference championship next month and gets the automatic bid.

UL Lafayette: At 9-2 in conference play they are tied for first place in the west division of the Sun Belt Conference with Denver. However, they have lost both of their games to Denver, which prompted me to include Denver in my picks for the tourney instead of UL Lafayette. They do have wins against Southern Illinois and Western Kentucky, but until Denver losses they are going to continue to be my pick to win the Sun Belt Conference.

Sam Houston State: At 8-2, Sam Houston State is one game behind SE Louisiana who is leading the Southland conference at 9-2. Sam Houston State lost the first game they played against SE Louisiana and the rematch is on March 5 and could decide who wins the regular season championship for the Southland conference.

Matt

Predicting the NCAA Tourney Round 3

2005-02-14T14:20:00.000-05:00

These are the teams that I feel will make the NCAA Tournament if the season ended today. I consider strength of schedule, conference records, and out of conference opponents when deciding what teams get in every week. New teams that have been added this week are noted in bold.

Big East (7): Connecticut, Syracuse, Boston College, Georgetown, Villanova, Pitt, Notre Dame
ACC (6): North Carolina, Duke, Wake Forest, Maryland, Georgia Tech, Miami
Big 12 (6): Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas Tech, Texas, Iowa State
Conference USA (6): Depaul, Cincinnati, Louisville, Charlotte, Memphis, UAB
SEC (4): Kentucky, Florida, Alabama, Mississippi State
Big 10 (4): Illinois, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Minnesota
Pac 10 (3): Arizona, Washington, UCLA
Big West (2): Pacific, Utah State
West Coast Conference (2): Gonzaga, St. Mary's (CA)
Missouri Valley Conference(2): Wichita State, Southern Illinois
A 10 (2): George Washington, St. Joseph's
Western Athletic Conference (2): Nevada, UTEP
America East (1): Vermont
Atlantic Sun Conference (1): Gardner and Webb
Big Sky Conference (1): Portland State
Big South Conference (1): Winthrop
Colonial Athletic Association (1): Old Dominion
Horizon League (1): Wisconsin Milwaukee
Ivy (1): Penn
Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference (1): Niagara
Mid Continent Conference (1): Oral Roberts
Mid American Conference (1): Miami (Ohio)
Mountain West Conference (1): Utah
Mid Eastern Athletic Conference (1): Coppin State
Northeast Conference (1): Monmouth (N.J.)
Ohio Valley Conference (1): Samford
Patriot League (1): Holy Cross
Southern Conference (1): Davidson
Southland Conference (1): SE Louisiana
Southwestern Athletic Conference (1): Alabama A&M
Sun Belt Conference (1): Denver

Teams that have been eliminated from the tourney since last week:

Virginia Tech: Two losses last week to Maryland and Virginia means the Hokies are going to the NIT.

Marquette: A loss to TCU, and an overtime win against East Carolina is not enough to keep this bubble team in the tourney this week.

Arizona State: An embarrassing loss to USC and getting blown out at UCLA knocks this Pac 10 team out.

Air Force: They only had one game last week, and beat Colorado State. It came down to one of the last picks, but I decided to include UTEP instead.

Rider: Two losses to Iona, and Manhattan knocked this team out of first place in their conference.

University of Missouri Kansas City: A loss to Oakland, which is one of the lower teams in the Mid Continent Conference, gave Oral Roberts the lead in the conference.

Matt

Viewing Guide for the Week of February 14-20

2005-02-13T17:04:00.000-05:00

These are some of the games that I will be watching and tracking this week. If I were to write down every game that I am interested in, I am afraid nobody would read the article, because it would be too long. Anyways.....

Monday

Pitt at Syracuse 7pm ESPN

In the first game between these two teams, Syracuse had a 17 point lead in the first half only to see Pitt come back and win the game. Syracuse looks for revenge at home in the Carrier Dome.

Kansas at Texas Tech 9pm ESPN

The Red Raiders have certainly flown under the radar this season. With a record of 15-6, and 7-3 in the Big 12, Bobby Knight will get into the tourney as usual. The question is can his team beat the Jayhawks who are undefeated in the Big 12 and only have one loss all season?

Davidson at College of Charleston 7pm

Davidson is 13-0 in conference play in the Southern league, and if they win this game, they will likely go undefeated in the conference.

Florida A&M at Savannah State 7pm

The game of the week. If you think I'm kidding, I'm not. Savannah State is 0-27 and this is their last game and last chance to salvage a win on what has been a horrible season.

Tuesday

Wake Forest at Miami 7pm

Miami is a team that is on the bubble, and could use a huge win to add to their resume. They will get their chance against one of the best teams in the ACC.

Bucknell at Villanova 7:30

Bucknell already beat Pitt this year. Can a team from the Patriot league beat two teams that are in the top 25 from the Big East in the same year?

Wednesday

Minnesota at Michigan State 7:30

After beating Wisconsin on February 5th, the Golden Gophers were heading in the right direction and likely to the tournament. With losses last week to Indiana and Northwestern, they need more quality wins to get into the tournament. However, I do not see the Golden Gophers beating the Spartans and I think Minnesota will be losers of 3 straight after this game, and be going in the direction of the NIT.

Depaul at Charlotte 7:30

Two teams that are headed for the tourney from Conference USA fight for 2nd place in the conference as they both stand at 8-2.

Georgetown at Notre Dame 8pm ESPN Classic

Turn back the clock game with old announcers, old graphics, and old uniforms. This game is a live broadcast by ESPN Classic and viewers can only hope this game is as good as the first time these two teams played when Georgetown won on a dunk at the buzzer.

Texas A&M at Texas 8pm

Texas is playing their way out of the tourney with losses to Iowa State and Colorado in the last week. They need this game to get above .500 in conference play.

Arkansas at Alabama 8pm

Alabama is the one team many people have not seen that is going to make some noise in the tourney. They went to the Elite 8 last year, and could be poised for another long term run in the tourney with the way they are playing this year. Arkansas needs conference wins, as they are 5-6 right now in conference play.

Memphis at Boston 7pm FSN

Boston's record stands at 26-25 with two games left before the All Star Break. I was convinced a few weeks ago that they would go into the All Star Break under .500 and I still feel that way. A loss to Sacramento on Sunday and a loss to Memphis tonight will do just that. (P.S. I hope my prediction is wrong for my beloved Celtics).

Thursday

Louisville at Marquette 7pm ESPN

Louisville beat Marquette by 47 two weeks ago. Somehow, I do not see that happening again in this game.

Oregon State at Arizona State 9pm

Ike Diogu of Arizona State is one of the 3 best big men in the country along with Sean May and Andrew Bogut. Unfortunately his team is 5-8 in the Pac 10 and must get somewhere close to .500 by seasons' end to have a chance to make the tourney.

Dallas at Phoenix 10:30 TNT

Anybody who is an NBA fan, and does not watch this game is crazy. Two high powered offenses and a game that will definitely be settled somewhere around the score of 120 is a matchup that I will not miss.

Friday

Farleigh Dickinson at Monmouth (N.J.) 8pm

Am I the only person looking forward to this game? Monmouth is one game ahead of Farleigh Dickinson in the Northeast standings, and Monmouth hopes to increase their lead to two games with a win tonight.

Saturday

Saturday is Bracket Buster Saturday. There are way too many good games to list in my viewers guide. What I recommend you do is get on your couch at noon, and do not leave until early Sunday morning when the UTEP vs. Pacific game is done with (that game starts at 11:59PM on ESPN).

Illinois at Iowa 12pm ESPN

Iowa took Illinois to OT last month, before Illinois prevailed. Without Pierre Pierce, Iowa will be lucky to keep this game close.

Syracuse at Boston College 7:30 ESPN

ESPN has just announced that they are going to be picking up this game. Here is the link.

How is this game not being televised? What college basketball fan wouldn't want to watch this game? It is an absolute shame that the only Syracuse vs. BC game this year, will not be on TV.

UAB at Cincinnati 4pm ESPN

UAB will get into the tourney for the second year in a row. Still a win over Bobby Huggins team in Cincinnati would be huge, especially since it is on national TV.

NBA 3 point contest and Slam Dunk Contest 8pm TNT

The best part of the All Star weekend is not the game on Sunday, but the dunks and the smooth shooting on Saturday night. Ray Allen, Joe Johnson, and Voshon Lenard will all be competing in the 3 point contest.

Sunday

Pitt at Villanova 1:30 ABC

Villanova has surprised me this year, and they have a team capable of making a run in the tourney. It will be interesting to see how they fare against one of the top teams in the Big East.

Wake Forest at Duke 6:30 FSN

I know I said Savannah State was the game of the week, but this has to be the game of the week that you can actually watch on TV. In the first game between these two teams Wake escaped with a 2 point victory. Look for the Cameron Crazies to make a difference as the sixth man homecourt advantage comes into play.

NBA All Star Game 8pm TNT

Does this game even mean anything to anyone? Is it just me or is this game extremely boring? Anyways at least it is a little better than the Pro Bowl since it is actually during the season instead of after it.

Turnovers Killed the Tar Heels

2005-02-10T01:00:00.000-05:00

Back 30 years ago tickets for a Duke vs. UNC matchup would only set a person back $2. Can you imagine that? That is so crazy to think about now, when tickets on ebay for the rematch on March 6 are going for $660(for those of you who think that is insane, there is already 9 bids on those tickets). So many players have come and gone throughout the years, but this rivalry remains as intense as it ever has been. Jerry Stackhouse, Vince Carter, Eric Montross, Shane Battier, Christian Laettner, and Grant Hill have all participated in the greatest rivalry in college basketball. Unfortunately for North Carolina's three seniors that have played and taken part in this rivalry their record now stands at 1-7 against the hated Blue Devils. Jawad Williams, Melvin Scott and Jackie Manuel have endured these years, and I'm sure they will be looking for a different outcome to the game when these two teams meet again on March 6 the last game of the regular season.

This game basically came down to one thing. Turnovers absolutely killed the Tar Heels as they gave Duke the ball 23 times. When one of the best point guards in America, in Raymond Felton has 8 turnovers, you know that as a team your playing great defense. Despite all of this, UNC had a chance to win it, but Felton basically threw the game away, when he decided not to take an open jumper with 5 seconds left. Instead he dribbled to the right, and passed it to David Noel who proceeded to lose the ball out of bounds. Even though it was not a dramatic ending, the ending of the game symbolized how the Tar Heels had played throughout the night, which was sloppy.

One other thing that really hurt the Tar Heels was that some of their best players just had miserable games. Rashad McCants who is the teams leading scorer shot only 3 of 13 from the field and 1 of 8 from behind the arc. Jawad Williams is another guy that the Tar Heels count on and tonight he only had 2 points. Sean May carried the Tar Heels the whole night with 23 points and 18 boards, but on the last possession of the ball game, when the Heels had a chance to win, he did not touch the ball. To go into Cameroon Indoor Stadium you need to have your big players step up. Tonight that did not happen.

Duke on the other hand got the output that they expected from J.J. Redick and Daniel Ewing. Redick was lethal behind the three point line as usual hitting 4 trifectas against UNC. Daniel Ewing had 15 points, and had two three pointers after UNC had tied the game at 53. But the player who stepped up huge in this game, was somebody that no one had talked about coming into this game, DeMarcus Nelson. The freshmen, who last year was California's Mr. Basketball had 16 points, one shy of his career high. DeMarcus also played great perimeter defense and had four steals. Sometimes in big games like this, its the person you least expect to break out, that has a huge game. Monday night JamesOn Curry of Oklahoma State introduced himself to the nation scoring 22 points against in state rival Oklahoma. Tonight the heralded freshmen from Cali showed that he can play with the big boys, as he had the best game of his young career against the school that resides only 8 miles away from Duke.

Last Friday I wrote that North Carolina is the best team in the country. Maybe I should rephrase that. They have the most talent in college basketball right now, but talent does not win a team games. Right now, I believe that when all is said and done that they will be National Champions (and I'm not a UNC fan). But to get there they must take care of the ball, and they need production from McCants, Willaims (Jawad and Marvin), and Raymond Felton consistently. As good as Sean May is, he can only carry this team so far. Every player has off nights, and unfortunately for Tar Heels fans, a few of their players dropped to this level in this game. I can guarantee you one thing, and that is when these two teams face off on March 6, the Heels will be ready. They better be, or else the fans that are willing to pay more than $660 for those tickets, are going to be severely disappointed.

Matt

Comparing the Brackets

2005-02-08T17:41:00.000-05:00

Joe Lunardi of ESPN.com, Michael Lazarus of foxsports.com, and Craig and Chris from Bracketology 101 all predict who they thought would make the tournament as of Monday. I thought it would be interesting to compare what teams they thought would make it in, to what I am predicting.

Joe Lunardi has 4 picks that are different from mine: Iowa, UTEP, St. Joseph's, and Stanford.

Michael Lazarus has 5 picks that are different from mine: Delaware State, Alabama State, St. Jospeph's, Iowa, and Stanford.

Craig and Chris' picks were most alike to the picks I made as we only disagreed on these 3 picks: Iowa, LSU, UTEP.

One team that all three analysts picked that I did not was Iowa. Two of the analysts thought that UTEP, St. Joseph's and Stanford would make the tourney, and I did not pick those teams. I am going to take a look at the 4 teams that these analysts thought would make it, and explain why I did not chose them.

Teams picked by all three analysts to make the tourney.

Iowa: Why are people picking Iowa to make the tourney? Is it because they almost beat Illinois? Frankly, I am not sure why. With the loss of Pierre Pierce this team is headed downhill and fast. They did have some great wins early in the season against Louisville, Texas, Texas Tech and Air Force, but when a team is 3-5 in the Big Ten in a down year, I find it hard to include them in the tourney. Add to that fact, that they just lost their best player makes this team a hard one to include in the tourney.

Teams picked by two of the three analysts.

UTEP: This team has a few big wins against Arizona State and at Nevada. I think that the WCC is only going to get one team in the tourney as of right now. Nevada is atop the WCC standings at 9-2, while UTEP is 8-3. This Saturday UTEP and Nevada play again in a game that will have huge implications on both of these teams chances for the big dance.

St. Josephs: I know St. Joe's is 8-1 in their league. But what some people forget is that they play in the A-10. The A-10 has never really been a good conference, and the conference definitely is struggling this year. When you take a look at their schedule, you can ask yourself who have they really beaten? When you have to argue over whether Xavier or Davidson is your best win of the season, you know you are really stretching. At this point, I just cannot include a team like this in my predictions.

Stanford: Okay, so they do have a win over my favorite team, Arizona. Stanford could have proved something to me last week by either beating Arizona or Arizona State on the road, but they lost both games. Their next 3 games are at home against California, USC and UCLA all games they should win if they want to be in the tourney. If they win those three, they will most likely be in, as far as I'm concerned after those games. But right now, with their record at 12-9 and 6-5 in the Pac 10, I am not going to include them.

Matt

Predicting the NCAA Tournament Round 2

2005-02-07T17:41:00.000-05:00

I made a few changes to my predictions on Wednesday. One reader commented that he thought Ohio State was on probabtion and therefore could not participate in the tourney. After doing some research, I found that he was right, so I took Ohio State out of my predictions. I apologize for including them in my predictions, as I should have known that they were on probabtion.

I also added an extra team to my predictions. Another reader commented that I should include 65 teams, instead of 64 because of the play in game that happens on the Tuesday before the tourney starts. I decided to take his advice and add another team. Just to clarify the play in game happens on Tuesday, and whichever team wins that game will most likely go on to be a #16 team in the tourney, while the other team goes home.

These are the teams that I feel will make the NCAA Tournament. More than a few teams have been pushed off the bracket, and that will be normal during this column for the next 6 weeks. New teams that have been added to the bracket from last weeks are noted in bold.

Big East (7): Boston College, Syracuse, Georgetown, Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Villanova, Notre Dame
ACC (7): North Carolina, Duke, Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, Maryland, Miami
Big 12 (5): Kansas, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Texas
Conference USA (6): Louisville, Depaul, Cincinnati, Charlotte, UAB, Marquette
Big Ten (4): Illinois, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Minnesota,
SEC (4): Kentucky, Florida, Mississippi State, Alabama
Pac 10 (4): Washington, Arizona, Arizona State, UCLA
West Coast Conference (2): Gonzaga, St. Mary's
Big West (2): Pacific, Utah State
Missouri Valley Conference (2): Wichita State, Southern Illinois
Mountain West Conference (2): Utah, Air Force
America East (1): Vermont
Atlantic 10 (1): George Washington
Atlantic Sun (1): Gardner Webb
Big Sky (1): Portland State
Big South (1): Winthrop
Colonial Athletic Association (1): Old Dominion
Horizon (1): Wisconsin Milwaukee
Ivy (1): Penn
Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference (1): Rider
Mid Continent Conference (1): University of Missouri Kansas City
Mid American Conference (1): Miami (Ohi0)
Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference (1): Coppin State
Northeast Conference (1): Monmouth (N.J.)
Ohio Valley Conference (1): Samford
Patriot League (1): Holy Cross
Southern Conference (1): Davidson
Southland Conference (1): SE Louisiana
Southwestern Athletic Conference (1): Alabama A&M
Sun Belt Conference (1): Denver
Western Athletic Conference (1): Nevada

Matt

Viewing Guide for the Week of Feb. 7-13

2005-02-06T23:05:00.001-05:00

These are the games that I will be watching in the upcoming week, and I suggest that you watch them as well.

Monday

Connecticut at Syracuse 7pm ESPN

This game will be a battle between two great low post players in Hakim Warrick and Josh Boone. This game also features great perimeter play with Rashad Anderson and Gerry McNamara.

Oklahoma at Oklahoma State 9pm ESPN2

Oklahoma won round 1 of this in state rivalry, and O.K. State will try to get revenge on their home floor.

Tuesday

2004 ALCS Game 5 New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox 6pm NESN

Get your VCR's ready. One of the greatest games in all of Red Sox history. David Ortiz comes up big in the 14th inning and provides the winning hit for the Red Sox for the second game in a row.

Boston College at Notre Dame 7pm ESPN2

This could be Boston College's hardest game of the season as they travel to South Bend to play the Fighting Irish.

Phoenix at Sacramento 10pm

Two of the best teams in the West square off.

Wednesday

2004 ALCS Game 6 Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees 6pm NESN

One of the greatest pitching performances by anybody to ever put on a Red Sox uniform. Curt Schilling gave the Red Sox 7 awesome innings and the Sox tied the series at 3-3.

North Carolina at Duke 9pm ESPN

This is one of the games that you look forward to every year, regardless if you root for one of these two teams. North Carolina has the better team this year, but Duke might have the best home court advantage in all of college basketball. This is the game of the week.

Thursday

2004 ALCS Game 7 Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees 7pm NESN

Johnny Damon. After struggling the whole series Damon had two homers and six RBI's to take the AL pennant and be the first team ever to come back from a 0-3 deficit. And to think I was there to witness history. Unbelievable!!!!!!

N.C. State at Wake Forest 7pm ESPN

N.C. State lost both of their games last week to North Carolina and Virginia, and they are not going to make the tournament, unless they get some big wins. A win at Wake would be huge.

Sacramento at Seattle 10:30 TNT

This game promises to be an up-tempo fast break type of NBA game that is rarely seen anymore. You definitely don't want to miss a chance to see fast break NBA basketball like this.

Friday

Denver at Cleveland 8pm ESPN

Lebron vs. Carmelo. Nuff said.

Saturday

Wisconsin at Illinois 1pm CBS

The Illini broke Wisconsin's 38 home game win streak a few weeks ago. The Badgers have a shot at revenge in this game.

Duke at Maryland 9pm ESPN

Different game, but similar scenario. Duke was undefeated until Maryland rolled into Cameron a few weeks ago, and blew up the idea of Duke going undefeated for the season. Duke can get revenge at Maryland's home court in Saturday night primetime ESPN basketball.

Sunday

North Carolina at Connecticut 1pm CBS

Talk about a tough week Going into Cameron is a hard enough week by itself, but having to travel to Storrs to play the Huskies will make for a hard week for the Tar Heels.

N.C. State at Georgia Tech 6pm FSN

Even if N.C. State wins on Thursday against Wake, they still need some more quality wins. After the game against GT, they still have Maryland, North Carolina and Wake again. Talk about a tough couple weeks. I think N.C. State needs to win 3 of those games, and beat up on the other teams they play to get into the tourney. I just don't see it happening.

North Carolina is the best team in the country

2005-02-04T02:50:00.000-05:00

I don't care what the records say. I don't care if Illinois is 22-0 and BC is 20-0. The best team in the country is North Carolina and they have two losses. They absolutely demolished N.C. State tonight, and they have a team that does it all. They have depth, they have scoring, they have defense, and they also have a great coach. The game tonight was never in doubt, but it was so fun to watch the Tar Heels pick apart N.C. State. It was a clinic.

Arizona is back!! After worrying about my Wildcats and their horrible performance against Washington State on Saturday, Arizona came out with a vengeance and beat up California 97-76.

Another Pac 10 game, another blowout. The only other great team in the Pac 10 Washington also had an easy time with USC defeating them 99-69.

After being down by 12 at halftime, and in a situation where they could possibly lose twice to St. Mary's in the same year, Gonzaga stormed back in the second half to win 68-63. This was an absolute huge game, and now these two teams are tied for the lead in the WCC at 6-2. I think both of these teams are a lock for the NCAA tourney, unless something crazy happens.

Ike Diogu is the best player you've never heard of. That is, unless you watch a ton of Pac 10 basketball as I do. Ike had 39 points and 10 boards in Arizona State's big win against Stanford. Ike is leading the Pac 10 in scoring, rebounding and blocks. Remember the name, because you will hear it for the next 15 years.

San Francisco might have kissed their NCAA tourney bid goodbye tonight with a bad loss to Pepperdine. UTEP had an even worse loss against Tulsa, and the outcome of that game makes me think that the WAC might just be getting 1 bid into the tourney.

In the crowed conference of the Ohio Valley, I chose on Monday that Tennessee Tech would be the team representing the conference in the tourney. Well, Tenn. Tech just played the other top team Samford and lost 64-57. There is now a 3 way tie for the conference lead as Murray State, Tenn. Tech, and Samford all are at 7-2 in conference. The conference is definitely up for grabs.

Matt

The Bubble Watch is Back

2005-02-03T14:54:00.000-05:00

The bubble watch is back. ESPN.com profiles all the teams that are on the bubble in terms of getting an NCAA tourney bid.

If your team is down by 3 with 30 seconds left and has the ball, you as a coach CANNOT get a T from the ref. That is just plain stupid. Well it happened last night in the Nova vs. UConn game. After Jay Wright got hit with the T, Rashad Anderson from UConn hit 2 free throws to put UConn up by 5. Game Over. Here is what Wright had to say about the game,

"I shouldn't have put our team in that position," Wright said. "I just feel bad for my players because they played so hard. I take responsibility for it."

Arizona fans all around the globe are wishing Will Bynum had never transferred to Georgia Tech. He has stepped up huge while B.J. Elder has been injured and hit the winning 3 for the Yellow Jackets with 3 seconds left against Florida State last night.

Last night, while watching a great night of college ball with George and Jon, I thought it might happen. Yes, the unthinkable was actually a possibility. Savannah State was only down by 7 at halftime to Florida A&M. Then, the second half came. And that second half ended the same way it has all season for Savannah State as they lost their 25th game of the year. Only 3 more chances for this team to win a game this year.

Is there any question that J.J. Redick is the best shooter in college basketball? Redick had 33 points, played all 40 minutes and nearly single-handedly brought his team back late in the game. Coach K had this to say about him,

"His desire to win could not have been exemplified in any higher fashion, he was magnificent," Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski said, referring to Redick. "His demeanor was the key to bringing us back."

When all was said and done, Wake Forest escaped with a 92-89 win, it what was a marvelous game. The Demon Deacons were lucky that Redick did not hit the shot at the buzzer that would have sent it into OT. You could see it on the players for Wake Forest, as they breathed a sigh of relief after Redick's shot bounced off the backboard and rim.

UAB crushed Marquette last night by the score of 86-63. This was a very important game for both teams, as they are both on the bubble. Although Marquette has 3 easy games coming up, I'm not sure if they have enough to make the tourney.

In the Big Ten, Minnesota beat Michigan 71-54, and Ohio State beat Purdue 75-65. Minnesota is now 15-6, and 5-3 in conference, while Ohio State is 15-7 and 4-4 in conference. Minnesota has the easier record down the stretch, and these two teams meet on Feb. 19 and the winner of that game could very well likely be tourney bound.

Georgetown continues to improve this season, and won last night against Seton Hall 61-51. Georgetown now stands at 14-6, and 6-3 in the very tough Big East. G Town needs to win at least 2 of the games they have against Villanova, Notre Dame, and Connecticut in the next month to be a lock for the tourney.

With only 3 teams seeming to a lock for this years tourney, the SEC is definitely having a down year. So will they get a fourth team? LSU, Florida, Vanderbilt, Arkansas, and South Carolina are all teams that could potentially get an NCAA berth. There are only 4 teams in the SEC that will not be making the tourney and those are Georgia, Tennessee, Auburn and Mississippi. The rest is up for grabs.

Matt

Bracketology

2005-02-01T16:12:00.000-05:00

Joe Lunardi from ESPN.com has his latest Bracketology column out, and Craig and Chris also have predicted the teams they feel will be in tourney over at Bracketology 101. Check out these links to compare their predictions with mine.

Will Savannah State lose every game they play this season? Their record stands today at 0-24. They have four remaining games left in their season, and if they lose them all they will only become the 2nd time in the last 50 years to lose all their games.

Pat Forde from ESPN does a conference midterm article and looks at the teams that are undefeated so far in conference play.

Top 100 prospects in college basketball, and where they are committed to attending school next year.

The Chainsaw tells you all you ever wanted to know about his undefeated teammates.

Attitude has been very important to Villanova's sucess this year.

Midsesason MVP's in the major conferences by Seth Davis.

Matt

Predicting the NCAA Tournament

2005-01-31T18:10:00.000-05:00

I am going to try and predict all 64 teams that will be making it into the tournament about a month and a half from now. Conference wins played a big role in what teams I chose, and also the out of conference schedule was a big influence as well. Without further ado, here are the teams broken down by conference, that I expect to see come March Madness.

Big East (7): Boston College, Pitt, Syracuse, Notre Dame, Villanova, Connecticut, Georgetown
ACC (6): Duke, North Carolina, Wake Forest, Maryland, Georgia Tech, N.C. State
Big Ten (5): Illinois, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa
Big 12 (5): Kansas, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas Tech
Pac 10 (4): Arizona, Washington, UCLA, Arizona State
Conference U.S.A. (4): Louisville, Cincinnati, DePaul, Charlotte
SEC (4): Kentucky, Florida, Alabama, Mississippi State
West Coast Conference (2): St. Mary's, Gonzaga
Western Athletic Conference (2): UTEP, Nevada
Big West (2): Pacific, Utah State
Atlantic 10 (2): Dayton, George Washington
Mountain West (2): Air Force, Utah
American East: Vermont
Atlantic Sun: Gardner Webb
Big Sky: Portland State
Big South: Winthrop
Colonial Athletic Association: Old Dominion
Horizon: Wisconsin Green Bay
Ivy: Penn
Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference: Rider
Mid Continent Conference: University of Missouri-Kansas City
Mid American Conference: Western Michigan
Mid Eastern Athletic Conference: Coppin State
Missouri Valley Conference: Wichita State
Northeast Conference: Monmouth
Ohio Valley Conference: Tennessee Tech
Patriot: Holy Cross
Southern Conference: Davidson
Southland: SE Louisiana
Southwestern Athletic Conference: Alabama A&M
Sun Belt Conference: Arkansas State

Viewing Guide for the week of Jan. 31-Feb. 6

2005-01-30T18:44:00.000-05:00

These are the games that I will be watching and following this week, and I suggest you to do.

Monday

San Antonio at Seattle 10pm
Two of the top teams in the western conference hookup to battle out west.

BYU at Utah 11:59pm ESPN
If your from Utah your allegiance is either to BYU or Utah as this is a huge rivalry that many people in the east are not aware of. When these games happen, records do not matter, as either team can win this game any given year.

Tuesday

Illinois at Michigan State 7pm ESPN
Dick Vitale has said a few times that he thinks if Illinois wins this game, they will run the table and be undefeated going into the conference championship.

Detroit at Washington 7pm
Weren't the Wizards the laughingstock of the NBA just a few years ago? If the playoffs were to start today the Wizards would be a #4 seed.

Wednesday

Cincinnati at Louisville 7pm ESPN
The battle for first place in Conference USA is up for grabs.

New Jersey at Boston 7pm FSN
These two teams looked as though a rivalry was forming a few years ago. Now, with both teams under .500 the game does not take on the same meaning as it did in 2001-2003. Even still, I hate the Nets and want the Celtics to pound them.

Duke at Wake Forest 9pm ESPN
Duke lost last year at Wake Forest. Can the Demon Deacons make it two years in a row over the Blue Devils?

Thursday

N.C. State at North Carolina 7pm ESPN
Some analysts have said this game is a bigger rivalry than North Carolina at Duke. N.C. State is on the bubble right now, and needs a few big wins down the stretch to get in the tourney.

St. Mary's at Gonzaga 8:30pm
Quick: Who has more wins coming into this game? If you guessed St. Mary's, you are right. With St. Mary's playing so well and in first place in the West Coast Conference, this is a chance for the Zags to gain ground on St. Mary's.

Friday

Orlando at Boston 7:30pm FSN
Will the Celts get above .500 before the All Star Break on Feb. 20th? My guess is no.

Saturday

Wisconsin at Minnesota 12pm ESPN
Dan Monson has the Golden Gophers playing well, but needs a few big wins like N.C. State in order to be a lock for the tourney.

Georgia Tech at Duke 1pm CBS
If B.J. Elder does not play in this game, I do not see any way that the Yellow Jackets can beat the Blue Devils.

Sunday

New England vs. Philadelphia 6:30pm FOX
Can you spell "dynasty?" If the Pats wins this game, as I think they will, they will be the dynasty of the new century, just like the Cowboys of the 90's and the 49ers of the 80's.

Matt

2005 Sox vs. Yanks Starting Pitching Comparison

2005-01-29T10:47:00.000-05:00

What type of year is a certain pitcher going to have? Everybody wants to know the answer to that question and so people spend money buying books such as The Bill James Handbook and Baseball Forecaster in search of that answer. People not willing to spend money can get Dan Szymborsk's projections for free on Baseball Primer, and Baseball Prospectus subscribers can get Pecota. There is a very easy way to get an idea of how a player is going to perform in 2005. It is simply called the 3-2-1 formula, and is used by many statisticians, most notably Tangotiger. The 3-2-1 formula weighs the players 2004 numbers 3 times, 2003 numbers 2 times, and 2002 numbers 1 time. Tangotiger has said before that any system like Pecota is basically about 70% accurate and that the 3-2-1 formula is about 65% accurate. This means that the books that these analysts put out are basically fighting for the last 5%. Anyways, let's compare the Sox vs. Yanks 2005 starting pitching staff using the 3-2-1 formula. (Note: I am going to assume full health for all of the pitchers. I realize that Wade Miller probably will not be ready to go at the beginning of the season, but I am going to assume everyone just to compare the starting pitching staffs if everyone is in good health.)

#1 Starters: Curt Schilling vs. Randy Johnson

The matchup we have all been looking forward too. Hopefully, Schilling will be ready to pitch on Opening Day in Yankee Stadium against Johnson. The atmosphere in Yankee Stadium is going to be incredible for that game, especially if Schilling is healthy enough to pitch. Let's see what 3-2-1 projects for two of the best pitchers in baseball. (ERA is earned run average, WHIP is walks + hits/innings pitching, K/9 is the amount of strikeouts per 9 innings that pitcher averages, and BAA is the batting averages hitters have against the pitcher)

Schilling

ERA WHIP K/9 BAA
3.15 1.04 9.32 .233

Johnson

ERA WHIP K/9 BAA
3.11 1.07 10.5 .226

These stats are extremely similar and basically it's too close to call who is better based just on these stats. Randy Johnson is more of a strikeout pitcher than Schilling, and he will also benefit from Yankee Stadium and the spacious death valley out in left centerfield. If I had to take one of these pitchers, I would take Schilling just because of his determination and guts that he has showed. When a pitcher does what Schilling did last year in the postseason, how can you go against him?

#2 Starters Wells vs. Mussina

I am going to assume that David Wells will be the #2 starting pitcher for the Sox at the beginning of the season. Matt Clement and Wade Miller might eventually move into this position, buy I have a feeling David Wells will be pitching the second game of the year for the Sox in Yankee Stadium. Mike Mussina will be the starting #2 for the Yanks, although Carl Pavano could move into that spot.

Wells

ERA WHIP K/9 BAA
3.87 1.19 4.75 .272

Mussina

ERA WHIP K/9 BAA
4.10 1.22 7.60 .260

I expect David Wells' ERA too be a little bit higher than 3.87, as I think it will be a little bit more than 4.00. David Wells strikeout rate is amazingly low, which is not a good thing for the Red Sox or their fielders. The Sox better be ready to make plays in the field when Wells is pitching, because of the low strikeout rate. Meanwhile, Mussina's K rate is very good for someone not known as a strikeout pitcher, and batters have only hit .260 against him the past three seasons using the 3-2-1 formula. If you were to look just at last years stats, David Wells did have a lower ERA than Mussina by a almost a run. You have to remember that Wells pitched in the NL in a very spacious Petco Park and that helped him immensely. One thing to remember is that Mussina is 36 years old, while Wells is 41. Mussina is definitely a safer bet than Wells.

#3 Starters: Clement vs. Pavano

The comparison of these pitchers is very interesting because both of these pitchers were pursued by the Red Sox. The Sox went after Pavano first, stopped pursuing him when they thought they had Pedro resigned, and then went after Clement. I am excited Clement is here, as I think he will be a great fit.

Clement

ERA WHIP K/9 BAA
3.81 1.25 8.84 .226

Pavano

ERA WHIP K/9 BAA
3.79 1.22 5.82 .267

One thing that is not mentioned in these stats is that Matt Clement walks 3.8 batters every 9 innings that he pitches. That is absolutely horrible. Clement has known to be wild at times, and if he is going to succeed in Boston he needs to cut down on those walks. The good thing for Clement is that he strikes out so many batters. Besides Schilling and Johnson he averages the most strikeouts per 9 innings at 8.84. The rest of his stats are extremely good, but he must have his control to be effective. Pavano on the other hand is the opposite of Clement in terms of strikeouts. He averages 3 less strikeouts per 9 innings than Clement, which is a big margin. Another stat that isn't mentioned is innings pitched. Clement has only three seasons in his career where he has pitched more than 200 innings, while Pavano just has 2 seasons like that. Combine that with both of these pitchers coming to the AL for the first time, and it is very hard to predict where they will end up. Their ERA's will certainly be higher than what is listed above. I would take Clement over Pavano, because I'm hoping he pitch with control, and that strikeout rate is too high not to pick him.

#4 Pitchers: Miller vs. Wright

As I noted above, these comparisons are being done assuming full health, which certainly is somewhat of a question mark for Miller and Wright to a lesser extent. Miller had spent his whole career in Houston before signing with the Sox, while Wright has bounced around the past few years.

Miller

ERA WHIP K/9 BAA
3.60 1.33 7.65 .236

Wright

ERA WHIP K/9 BAA
6.71 1.81 7.49 .304

It is very clear from these stats that Wright's 2002 and 2003 season inflated all of his numbers to astronomical levels. There is no way that Wright is going to have an ERA, WHIP, or BAA anywhere near what the 3-2-1 formula says. Many writers have bashed the Yankees for signing Wright on what is obviously just one good year in 2004. I do not think it was a good signing because anybody can have a good year in their contract year (J.D. Drew and Javy Lopez come to mind). Miller, if healthy, can be an excellent addition to the Red Sox rotation. He was a great pitcher for the Astros, and it was a horrible mistake by them to non-tender Miller. If Wade Miller is healthy, and that's a big IF, the Red Sox have an advantage at the #4 pitcher.

#5 Pitcher Wakefield vs. Brown

Tim Wakefield is a pitcher who has been with the Red Sox longer than any player currently on the roster. It was great to see him standing on the mound after game 7 of the 2004 ALCS, after what had happened the year before. For anybody who has not seen that, I highly recommend Faith Rewarded and the 2004 World Series DVD. The DVD's have many highlights not seen before and Wakefield standing on the mound is one of them. The 5th starter spot could go to Bronson Arroyo who I think is a better pitcher and deserves it more. However, I think Terry Francona will go with the veteran to start out with, because he seems to like Bronson in the pen. Kevin Brown is a pitcher the Yankees had tried to get rid off this offseason, but no team seems willing to take on enough of his salary. I think there is still a small possibility that he gets traded before Opening Day, but for now he is the 5th starter.

Wakefield

ERA WHIP K/9 BAA
4.26 1.30 6.51 .248

Brown

ERA WHIP K/9 BAA
3.64 1.25 6.83 .255

Both of these pitchers showed signs of their age last year. Wakefield is 38 and had one of his worst years last year, and Brown is 39 and heard the boo birds many times late in the season in Yankee Stadium. These stats are too low for both of these pitchers. I expect both of these pitchers had ERA's over 5.00. I would take Wakefield over Brown any day, because Wakefield is reliable and a great team player. Brown seems to get frustrated too much, as evidence by his punch in the Yankee locker room, which broke his hand. I think Brown is too unstable, and I would not be surprised if he retired after this season.

In conclusion, so much has been said about the Yankees starting pitcher with the additions of Johnson, Pavano, and Wright. Although I think they are good pitchers and will help the Yankees this season, I do not think enough credit has been given to the Red Sox for the pitchers they obtained this offseason. The Sox also obtained three starting pitchers this season, and while they do not have the appeal that Randy Johnson has, they are certainly going to help the club. The Sox also have two guys in the pen, who are more than capable starters if needed in Arroyo and John Halama. I think it all boils down to this: health and how these pitchers adapt to the AL. Curt Schilling has said before that coming to the AL and having to face the DH was a very tough transition for him. If some of these pitchers cannot make a smooth transition to the AL, expect to hear a lot of talk in July of these two teams battling for Kip Wells and Ben Sheets in order to have the best starters ready for the postseason. Because, when all is said and done, the 2005 ALCS, like the 2004 ALCS will come down to pitching between these two teams.

Matt

This Game Came Down to the Basics

2005-01-28T13:03:00.000-05:00

Last night's showdown between #10 Washington and #11 Arizona came down to what every coach has their team practice every day: free throw shooting. Arizona hit an amazing 38 of 40 free throws, and at one point during the game made 31 consecutive to help them to a 91-82 victory. In the first half it looked as though Arizona did not belong on the same court as Washington was grabbing offensive boards almost every time down court. At halftime, Salim Stoudamire felt it was his time to speak up:

"I was cursing," Stoudamire admitted. "I was saying all kinds of thing, using some foul language. Maybe it woke us up. I might do it again."

Salim has been absolutely on fire the last month. Coach Lute Olsen suspended Salim for a week earlier in the season, which caused him to watch from the sidelines on December 18th when the Wildcats barely beat Marquette. The reason for the suspension was attributed to Salim not being a leader and having conduct detrimental to the team. Since the suspension Salim is averaging over 19 points a game, and shooting 64% from behind the arc. In his last five games he has scored 21, 32, 27, 25, and 25 and in one of those games he scored 24 of his 32 points after halftime including the game winner from 26 feet. In that game Salim scored 24 of the 29 points and after the game, Lute had this to say about him:

"He is the best shooter in the country, hands down," Arizona coach Lute Olson said. "They talk about the guy at Duke (J.J. Redick), but I will put Salim up against him anytime."

In his senior year, Salim has come to realize that Arizona will go as far this year as he carries them. If he continues the pace he has been on, Arizona can contend with any team in the country. These two teams meet again in 28 days, and Tre Simmons, the leading scorer for Washington has already provided some motivation for the rematch:

"We're definitely going to get them back when we go back to Seattle," Simmons said. "There is no doubt about it in my mind."

Arizona fans hope their team can repeat what the Huskies did to them last year in beating the Wildcats three times. In order to accomplish this, the Wildcats must play as a team like they did last night, win the rebounding war, and limit Washington's three pointers. Washington last night had 14 three pointers and shot 38% behind the arc. If the Wildcats are successful in these areas, there is a good chance they will win the rematch in Seattle.

Matt

FEAR THE TURTLE!!!

2005-01-27T15:11:00.000-05:00

Just when I thought the Maryland's season was headed towards the gutter, Gary Williams motivates his team and pulls the biggest upset of the week and maybe even the year. The Terps came into last night's game against Duke with an 11-5 record and a 2-3 record in the ACC. With games in the next month against Georgia Tech, at North Carolina State, Duke, and UNC, I presumed that the Terps were going to fall under the pressure of playing in the ACC. But the Terps proved me wrong. They went into one of the hardest places to play in college basketball in Cameron Indoor Stadium and emerged with a 75-66 victory.

My friend Jim earlier in the day had told me that the Terps were going to win by 2. I responded back that the Blue Devils were going to kill Maryland and win by at least 15. The funny thing about this is that Jim knows basically nothing about college basketball (sorry Jim). Last night, I was watching the game in my friend George's room and I could not believe that the Terps had a lead in the first half. I totally expected a blowout in this game. The Terps held tough, and played great defense against a team that can really shoot from outside. As the game was about to end with a minute left I started IM'ing Jim like crazy telling him I could not believe what I was seeing. The convo went like this:

"This is UNBELIEVABLE"
"I cannot believe what I'm seeing."
"This is great."
"You were right."

Come to find out a few minutes later, that Jim had no idea why I was IM'ing him. He was not watching the game, and had no idea what was happening. This proves two points: anything can happen in a given college basketball game, and although I watch a TON of college basketball, I can be wrong in my predictions of college basketball games. This is why I love college basketball. Heck, an 8-9 Providence team can within a three pointer by Donnie McGrath that would have sent the game into OT against an undefeated Boston College.

The win by Maryland last night was great for two simple reasons: I like Maryland and I hate Duke. My love for Maryland started in 2000 when they had Juan Dixon, Steve Blake and Lonny Baxter among others. Steve Blake was my favorite college basketball player for the 4 years he was with the Terps. It was also during this time that I developed my hate for Duke. I respect them as a team, and I think Coach K is an excellent coach, but they have beaten Maryland several teams in the past few years in crucial games. There was the game where Maryland lead by 10 with under a minute left, until Jay Will took over the game and lead Duke to an OT victory. There was the 2001 Final Four where the Terps had a 20 point lead over Duke in the first half only to see Duke come back and win the game and the National Championship. The last few years the Terps are the team taking the important games from the Blue Devils. Last year in the ACC tournament the Terps were down by 12 with 3 and half minutes to go, only to be lead by John Gilchrist to a victory and an ACC tournament championship the next day. That string of four days in the ACC tournament prompted me to look for a Maryland tee shirt and I almost ended up buying the Fear the Turtle tee shirt. And then last night, with Duke being only one of three undefeated teams left, the Terps went into Cameron and beat Duke.

The conference season is still not even half way through, so the Terps still do have some important games that they most win to get into the tourney, but this win is by far their biggest win of the season and hopefully will lead to big wins down the road.

Matt

Bye Bye Minky

2005-01-26T16:47:00.000-05:00

After hearing news of Carlos Delgado signing with the Marlins, rumors started to swirl on message boards that the Mets were turning their attention to Doug Mientkiewicz. Last night, when I went to bed, all I had heard was that the Sox were getting a single A prospect in return for Minky. Fans over at SOSH were drooling over the possibility of getting Yusmeiro Petit , a 20 year old right handed pitcher who although he does not have powerful stuff struck out 200 batters last year in 139 innings. When I awoke in the morning, I found out that the prospect the Sox were getting was a big first baseman named Ian Bladergroen. Ian was a 44th round pick out of junior college in Colorado in 2002, although he did not sign until 2003. In his two years in the minors his numbers are as follows:

AVG OBP OPS
.313 .376 .881

These stats can be misinterpreted because Ian has only played two years of single A ball. In his first year he struggled putting up a line of .285/.354/.416 (AVG, OBP, SLG), but last year he was a real force in the lineup until he got a wrist injury which ended his season in July. At the time of the injury he was hitting .342/.397/595. If the injury that he sustained to his wrist is fully healed by the time baseball season starts, I look forward to seeing him perform just as he did before he got injured. Baseball America which is the best minor league web site around, rated Ian the #4 prospect in the Mets system. Rotoworld rated Ian 7th among all Mets prospects.

One thing that Ian needs to learn is patience. To take a quote from Baseball America

"He was aggressive and would chase a bit like a young slugger," said Charleston (W.Va.) manager Ken Joyce, "but he had a real nice swing and legitimate big-time power. His swing path put the bat in the (strike) zone for a long time."

As Red Sox fans we all know that under the new managerial style, the Red Sox preach patience to their hitters. This was one of the main reasons the Sox traded for Mark Bellhorn last year. If Ian can learn more patience as a hitter, which I'm sure he can since he is only 21, he will have a better chance of succedding in getting to the big leagues. It will be interesting to see how he progresses in the Red Sox minor league system. All in all, I thought it was a good trade for the Sox, because I think Millar is a better fit at 1B than Minky.

Matt

Viewing Guide for the Week of Jan 24-29

2005-01-24T16:16:00.000-05:00

I thought I would provide a viewing guide of the upcoming games that I am looking forward to this week. At the top of my list is the Illinois vs. Wisconsin game Tuesday night, but there are plenty of other games this week that I am watching and that you should too.

Monday

Oklahoma State vs. Oklahoma 9pm ESPN

This is a game between in state rivals and between two teams who have a combined 5 losses on the year. Oklahoma State lost 75-61 on Jan. 17 to Texas, while Oklahoma just beat Texas at home on Saturday by a score of 64-60. This game is going to be played in Oklahoma with the rematch being played again on Feb. 7 at Oklahoma State. If Oklahoma wins this game they will stay undefeated in conference as they are 4-0 right now. I did not think at the beginning of the season that Oklahoma would be this good, but Kelvin Samspon has done a great job with this team. This will be a great game.

Tuesday

Illinois vs. Wisconsin 9pm ESPN

The game of the week is the showdown in the Big Ten. Wisconsin has won 38 straight home games, while Illinois is 19-0. One of these streaks will end tonight. Illinois almost lost last week to Iowa but won in OT by 5. Wisconsin is one of the toughest places to play in all of college basketball, and I can imagine that kids are camping out right now to get tickets as you read this. What an excellent game to look forward to. For previews of this game, click here and here.

Wednesday

Maryland vs. Duke 9pm ESPN

Gary Williams the coach of Maryland has said that this years team for Duke has been Coach K's best coaching job. Duke is undefeated at 15-0 and I would venture to say that is a surprise for most college basketball fans. The last time these two teams played was in the ACC Tournament last March in the semifinals. Duke was up by 12 with 3 and a half minutes to go, when John Gilchrist took the game over and lead the Terps to an OT win. These two teams have such a great rivalry and tradition and I cannot wait to watch this game. Unfortunately, the game is at Cameron Indoor Stadium and I think Duke will go to 16-0. Not to worry Duke haters, as Duke plays Wake Forest, Georgia Tech and North Carolina all between Feb. 2-9. If they win all of those games, I will be STUNNED.

Boston College vs. Providence 7:30pm

Providence has really struggled so far this season. Ryan Gomes who was a first team All American last year and is scoring 20 points and grabbing 9 boards a game this year, but a team cannot win with one player. Providence is 0-4 in conference and has an overall record of 9-8. BC, like Duke will continue their unbeaten streak and make it 17 in a row.

Thursday

Washington vs. Arizona 8:30pm FSN

Being a huge Arizona fan, this is a game I have been looking forward to since last year. Washington beat Arizona three times last year, which for Lute Olson has to be unacceptable. This is a chance for the Wildcats to get revenge. Arizona is coming off a week by beating Oregon and Oregon State on the road, while Washington only played one game last week beating Washington State. This game could not be more evenly matched. Both teams come in with a record of 6-1 in conference. Washington is 16-2 overall, with Arizona a step behind at 16-3. Salim Stoudamire has averaged 19 points, and hit 65% of his three pointers in his last ten games. Look for Salim to have another huge game if Arizona is to win.

Sacramento vs. San Antonio 9:30pm TNT

Right after my Wildcats beat the Huskies I will be flipping over to this game, which is the best game of the week in the NBA. Yesterday, San Antonio went into Sacramento and beat the Kings by 30. Arco Arena is one of the toughest places to play in the NBA, and to beat the Kings by 30 is remarkable. I hate the Spurs and I do like the Kings, but I will have to be satisfied with Arizona's win earlier in the night, because San Antonio will make it two straight vs. the Kings.

Friday

Phoenix vs. Boston 7:30 FSN

This game must be watched not because it will be a close game, but because it is one of the few chances to watch the most exciting team in the NBA. The Suns are an awesome team, and the style of basketball they play is great. Their starting lineup is arguably the best in the NBA with Steve Nash, Joe Johnson, Amare Stoudamire, Quentin Richardson and Shawn Marion. Unfortunately, the Suns do not have much of a bench, which forces the starting 5 to play most of the game. This could catch up with them later in the year. Another thing that this team has to stay away from is injuries. Steve Nash was recently out and the Suns lost all five games in which he did not play. That just shows how valuable he is to the team. He has to be the best free agent signing last summer. Look for the Celts to lose by 20.

Saturday

Syracuse vs. Pitt 7pm ESPN

Syracuse has a record of 19-1 this year, and with the return of Billy Edelin look even more dangerous. Pitt just won their biggest game of the year on Saturday by going to Storrs and beating UConn. Pitt, like Wisconsin is almost unbeatable at home. I like Pitt in this game in another mini upset.

Also on the schedule for Saturday is Georgetown at BC. Georgetown beat Notre Dame on a buzzer beater yesterday and they are having a good year, and will be a decent test to the Eagles. I'm going to go out on a limb, and say the Hoyas will pull the huge upset.

There are plenty of more games that I am looking forward to this week, but these are the ones I am really looking forward to.

Matt

Pitt Respond with Big Second Half

2005-01-23T11:19:00.000-05:00

I thought this game was over. Pitt was playing horrible, and was down by 15 with 18:30 to go in the game. I was disappointed and upset. Not only am I a Pitt fan (after Arizona of course), I hate UConn. And I mean hate. I grew up in western Mass a huge UMass Minuteman fan. When you are a fan of the Minuteman, you hate the Huskies. But then, something happened. That something was Chevon Troutman. Troutman poured in 25 of his 29 points in the second half as Pitt came back and ended up beating UConn in Storrs by 10. I was surprised, stunned, and thrilled all at the same time. Pitt had been resurrected from the dead in this game, and it was all due to their big man Chevon Troutman.

In the first half, UConn dominated the game. They had a lead of 11 at halftime, and Pitt was lucky the lead was not larger. UConn lead by as many as 17 in the first half as Rashad Anderson was nailing 3's from the outside. Rashad had been in a slump, but as Digger Phelps called it on the College Gameday pregame show, when he said that Rashad would break out in this game. UConn was also controlling the inside of the paint as well. Although Josh Boone and Rudy Gay both got in early foul trouble, Hilton Armstrong and Charlie Villanueva stepped in and played huge. Dick Vitale said during the broadcast that he thinks that UConn has the best frontcourt in all of basketball. With players like Boone, Villanueva, Gay, Armstrong, and Ed Nelson I cannot disagree with that statement. Even still UConn just lead by 11 at halftime with a 43-32 lead.

A few minutes into the second half, I almost changed the channel to see if there was another college basketball game on. Instead, a guy named Chevon forced me to not touch my remote controller. I cannot emphasize enough how much of an impact Chevon had on this game. Chevon is a senior and is used to playing UConn by now. He has played and been involved in the last three Big East Championship games, two of which have been won by UConn. This game would not be won by UConn and its all because of Chevon. With Pitt down 53-47, Chevon scored 11 straight points to put Pitt up 56-54, and they would never look back. Chevon was driving, rebounding, slashing to the hoop, and even hitting his fourth three pointer of the year in the second half. I have watched a lot of Pitt's games over Chevon's 4 year career and I think this is his best game he has ever played. In the end, Chevon had scored 29 points, grabbed 12 boards (7 on the offensive side), shot 10 of 18 from the floor, and 8 of 9 from the free throw line.

This was a huge win for Pitt after suffering losses to Bucknell and St. Johns earlier in the month. Jamie Dixon's team played with the type of intensity that Pitt fans have been accustomed to since Ben Howland was coaching the team. Although this was a great win for Pitt, they still have an extremely hard road ahead. They face 19-1 Syracuse this Saturday at home, and also have games against UConn, BC, and Syracuse all in February. One thing is for sure and this is if Troutman plays like he did last night, Hakim Warrick will have his hands full come this Saturday trying to guard him.

Matt

Finally time to Post

2005-01-18T17:19:00.000-05:00

I finally have a little time to post. Winter break has been busy, as I have been substitute teaching in Ludlow. Many things have happened since the last time I posted 10 days ago. My picks for the first week were pretty good at 3-1. This last week I did not get a chance to post my picks but I went 3-1 again. I really thought the Patriots were going to lose. I thought that it was Peyton's year, and no matter what the Pats defense tried, I thought that the Colts would find a way to win. I could not have been more wrong. The Pats D manhandled the Colts, and the Patriots had the ball for so long with those long drives. It was pathetic. I think the Pats had 3 drives of 14 plays or more. That is just unheard of, and that along with their D is the reason why they won the game.

The Sox have just reached agreements with Mark Bellhorn and Bronson Arroyo. I do not have a link to the story but Arroyo's contract this season is for 1.85 million, while Bellhorn is due to make 2.75 million. Arroyo at this money is still a steal. After all, he almost ended up in the top 10 in ERA in the AL. Bellhorn is getting more here than I thought he would. I thought he would get about 2 million. As long as he repeats the year he had last year, I have no problem with him getting the 2.75 million.

The Celtics are tied for first place at 17-20. That is the most pathetic thing I have ever heard of! It is almost the All Star Break, and a team should not be leading their division with 17 wins. That conference is horrible. The Celtics will make the playoffs this year just because the East is so bad, but expect another early exit from them, just like last year when they got swept in 4 games by the Pacers. I think the Eastern conference in the NBA is worse than the NFC in football. Yes, I know that the NFC had two teams make the playoffs at 8-8, and both of those teams (Rams and Vikings) proved how good they really were this weekend getting killed by the Eagles and the Falcons. The Eastern conference in the NBA only has 6 teams with winning records and besides the Heat, nobody really stands out. The Cavs, Pistons, and Wizards all have 22 wins, behind the Heat who have 28. I cannot believe I am saying this, but the Wizards lost their first game of the MONTH last night. When teams like the Wiz go undefeated for more than half a month, something is wrong.

And finally I got to give some props out to my HS. The varsity boys basketball team is holding it down right now undefeated in conference play with a record of 4-0 with a big game against Pathfinder tonight. I graduated from Pioneer Valley Christian School in 2001 with 24 students. Right now the HS has about 100 students in it. All this being said, they are blowing teams out of the water winning games by 20 to 30 points each night. Check the box scores of tonight's game at masslive.com tomorrow.

Those are my random thoughts of the day, and hopefully I will be back soon to post again. With 14 hour RA training days beginning tomorrow through Sunday, that does not seem likely.

Matt

Links on Playoff Weekend

2005-01-08T10:52:00.000-05:00

Just to remind you that you heard it here first, I am predicting that the Rams, Jets, Packers and Colts will win this weekend (just don't blame me if they don't). Last night I was driving to pick up my brother from his basketball game, and I was listening to JT the Brick on the radio. He happens to think that the same 4 teams will win these games. It is obvious why he thinks this. He must have checked out the blog on Monday, read my article, agreed with my picks, and then used them on his nightly show. Or at least, that's what I like to think.

WEEI had an interview yesterday with Theo Epstein. I always find his interviews very informative and interesting to listen too. You can listen to the whole interview here, as I did, because I cannot pick up WEEI at my house.

Good news. Wade Boggs is entering the Hall of Fame wearing a Red Sox hat. I am very excited by this, because he played the majority of his career with the Sox.

One last thing. There have been numerous articles written about Minky wanting to keep the ball that he caught for the last out of the World Series. If you have not read the story yet, you can read it in Shaughnessy's column. To be blunt and to the point, I think the ball deserves to be in Red Sox management's hands.

Enjoy the weekend, and remember where you heard those NFL picks.

Matt

College Football needs a New System

2005-01-08T01:19:00.000-05:00

I know this subject has been beaten to death this year by college football analysts, but I wanted to let my opinion be known as well. Numerous coaches and analysts have all complained that while the BCS might be better than what we had before, it does not do enough to make sure the right teams face each other. This year, Auburn was left out of the National Championship game, even though they went 12-0 in the SEC and then beat VA Tech in their bowl game. Would Auburn have beat USC? Well, I don't think anybody could have beat USC on that night. They were absolutely clicking on all cylinders. Auburn is a great defensive team, so I would love to see that matchup, but unfortunately, we as fans do not get to see that. And that is not fair to us as fans, or to the teams that deserve that chance to be called a National Champion.

My friend asked me if I thought that my favorite NFL team the San Francisco 49ers would be able to beat USC. And you know what, I am not sure that they could. In fact, I think if I was a betting man (note: I am not), I would put my money on USC. The Niners had too many injuries this year, and if USC and the 49ers were to play this weekend, I strongly believe that USC would win. How sad is that? Anyways, enough about the 49ers. Who wants to hear about a team that went 2-14, and fired their head coach and GM anyway??

The reason why the BCS is really BS is because after the season, there are still questions left. The two main questions that I would love to have answered are: is Auburn better than USC and how good is Utah? Utah went 12-0 this season playing in the Mountain West Conference. Some pundits will say that who knows how good they are since they didn't play anybody. You know what, that is bull crap. Utah beat Texas A&M by 20 points, which is no small feat. They beat Pittsburgh in the Fiesta Bowl by 28 points. And yes, I do realize that Texas A&M is not as good as USC, but they did play Oklahoma real hard and almost beat them. Pittsburgh might not have been the best team to play in the Fiesta Bowl against Utah, but the Utes played whoever they were scheduled against and beat them. Utah played four teams in the regular season that went onto bowl games. They played Texas A&M, North Carolina, New Mexico, and Wyoming. They beat those 4 opponents by a combined score of 160-72. That's more than double the score, for you non-math majors out there. Then they went into their BCS game, the first time a team was in a BCS game without coming from a big conference, and they embarrassed Pitt by 28. Utah won every single game this year by at least 14 points. So, I know you are now asking yourselves, What the heck is the whole point of this paragraph? The point is the BCS sucks because I really wanted to see Utah playing an undefeated team. The point is a better system might allow that. That's the fricking point. The BCS just doesn't work, because it doesn't settle these arguments. In the NFL, MLB, and NBA everybody knows who the best team at the end of the season is. Well, with college football we don't really know, do we? USC fans can claim all they want that they are the best team, but until they play Auburn, who really knows? Who is not to say that Auburn pulls an upset? What about Utah. Maybe they could even give USC a game (I know it's a stretch, but for the sake of the argument, agree with me).

Let me tell you another thing that pisses me off about the BCS. The whole thing about the six major conferences (Big East, Pac 10, Big 12, Big 10, SEC, ACC) getting an automatic bid to the conference winner is absolutely insane. Pitt, although they had a fine season, had no business playing in a BCS game. They were 8-4 this year and they were only nationally ranked team for two weeks this year. This is the first time that a team has played in the BCS, and then after losing the game is no longer ranked. When that happens, as it did this year, that means that team had no business being in that bowl game. In 2005, the Big East will have 8 teams in their league with a few additions. Cincinnati, Louisville, and South Florida will join the Big East, while Temple and BC leave. This only makes me more angry. The Big East not only has the lowest number of teams competing for a BCS bid (8), but most of the team are not BCS worthy. Louisville is the only team in that conference right now that might actually deserve a BCS bowl game next year, and even that is a stretch. I absolutely hate the fact that the Big East is going to get a BCS bowl bid next year, and their conference only has 8 teams, while the real conferences like the ACC, Big 10, and Big 12 each have between 10-12 teams. This system is really screwed up.

I could write a book on this subject, but I want to leave with just a few final thoughts. Not every flaw of the BCS is included in this article, because, well, I am being very conscious that you have other things to do than read my blog. The plus one system is a huge step up, and one I think that college football should soon employ. For those of you, who do not know what the plus one system is, it's a game that is played after the top 4 teams play against each other. This year USC would have played #4 in the BCS standings Texas, and and #2 and #3 Oklahoma and Auburn would play each other. The winners of those two games would play each other in a title game. Although there are some minor drawbacks to a plus one system, I certainly think it is a step in the right direction. To quote Kirk Herbstreit an analyst for ESPN in the Washington Post,

"It's such an obvious and simple solution that it's staggering it hasn't already been adopted. "There's not a single substantive argument against it. University adminisrators need to get together and work this thing out, so we don't have to go through this BCS mess season after season after season."

So, there you have it folks. The answer to a few of the problems the BCS has is the plus one system. So what do we do know? Well you can start by emailing as many Presidents of major universities at this site to let them know how we feel about the BCS. The email is already written for you and is something that we as people who are not connected with decisions concerning the BCS can do. When you think about it, its' the least we can do to help out our beloved past time of college football.

Matt

An interesting take on the Yanks offseason

2005-01-05T15:44:00.000-05:00

Larry Mahnken over at The Harball Times has a very interesting look at the Yankees offseason moves. Larry is a Yankees fan, and is the author of Replacement Level Yankees Weblog. In the article over at THT, he basically vents about all the offseason moves that Cashmen and Steinbrenner have made. I hate the Yankees, and even I do not think some of these moves are that bad. Larry takes the opposite view. His article is a must read, and you can find it here.

Wade Boggs and Ryne Sandberg were elected into the Hall of Fame yesterday. I was a huge Wade Boggs fan, and it is always sad to see him wear a Yankee hat. Nevertheless, he was an excellent hitter and a great third baseman. I never read Dan Shaughnessy, because he usually is just bashing the Red Sox or one of their players. However, over at Baseball Primer, there was a discussion about his article on Wade Boggs and I did not see any negative comments about his article. I decided to read Shaughnessy for the first time in months, and it is a very good article and can be found here.

Matt

VA Tech didn't play BeamerBall tonight

2005-01-04T19:40:00.000-05:00

I was as pumped up for the Sugar Bowl matchup as any other bowl game I have watched throughout this great bowl season (including a 12 hour New Years Day). The Virginia Tech Hokies were playing the undefeated Auburn Tigers of the SEC. I was excited because nobody, and I mean NOBODY would have predicted that these two teams would be playing in this bowl game before the season started. VA Tech was in their first year as a team in the ACC and started out 2-2. The Hokies went on to win their last 8 games, their final 3 over Maryland, Virginia, and Miami at the Orange Bowl. If Miami had won that game against VA Tech, they would have represented the ACC in the Sugar Bowl. Instead, VA Tech took it to Miami on December 4th and earned the right the play against Auburn.

Auburn's coach was under fire last year after they went 7-5. The President of Auburn almost fired the coach Tommy Tuberville after the season, but decided against it when he could not convince Bobby Petrino of Louisville to come back to the place where he was an offensive coordinator a few years ago. All Auburn did this year was go undefeated in the SEC, one of the toughest conferences in America, and beat prominent SEC opponents such as LSU, Tennessee (twice), Georgia, and Alabama. To go undefeated in a major conference in the SEC is amazing and I truly hope that Auburn somehow gets a share of the National Title.

But on to the real subject matter which is the Hokies just didn't play BeamerBall tonight. Some of you may be asking what is BeamerBall? Frank Beamer is the head coach of the Hokies, and is a coach that stresses special teams, defense, and not committing many penalties, and mental mistakes. Well, the Hokies would have won the game tonight if they had played the brand of ball that they are accustomed too.

In the first half, the Hokies had a first and goal on the Tigers 3 yard line. After Auburn succeeded in holding the Hokies for the first three downs, Beamer decided to go for it on fourth down. Why he made this decision, I have no idea. I love Frank Beamer, and I love the Hokies, but I hate the decision. In a tight game, where the game is going to be dominated by the two defenses you take the 3 points. Anyways, on fourth down, Bryon Randall threw a pass that went right through the hands of the receiver. The game almost seemed to turn on this play. The Tigers took the ball down the field and scored a field goal, and went into the half leading 9-0.

The Hokies also were called for a clipping penalty that resulted in them having their ball on their own 20, instead of on the Tigers 35. The penalty was called on a punt return, which obviously did not make Frank Beamer happy. The Hokies just continually made mistakes that are uncharacteristic of their team, and that is why they lost the game.

The most disappointing thing to think about for a VA Tech fan is that early in the fourth quarter their field goal kicker Brandon Pace, a Lou Groza award finalist as college football's best kicker missed a 26 yard field goal that would have made the score 16-3. The missed field goal did not seem to matter, because at that time it looked like the game was out of reach for the Hokies. Little did I know, that VA Tech would go on to score 13 points on two touchdowns in the next 5 minutes. The second touchdown came on an 80 yard bomb from Bryon Randall. After scoring the first TD, VA Tech went for the two point conversion, but was unsuccessful in their attempt. VA Tech never got the ball back after scoring that last touchdown, as Auburn was able to run out the clock.

Auburn is a great team, and a team that I hope gains a share of the national title. When a team goes 13-0, you deserve to be No. 1. The Hokies gave the Tigers all they could handle and would have came out of the Sugar Bowl with a win, if it was not for their mistakes that they made. The Hokies are a very young team having 48 freshmen and 31 juniors on this years team. Marcus Vick, the brother of Michael who plays QB for the Falcons will be rejoining the team in the springtime after missing this year due to some run-ins with the police. Marcus will have to try to live up to the reputation and excitement that the Hokies fans will expect from him, since he is the brother of one of the most amazing college QB's ever. If he plays like his brother, the Hokies might be headed to another national championship game, just like Michael lead them a few years ago against Florida State. So even though VA Tech did not win the game, they have a bright future and only good things to look forward to in the near future.

Matt

NFL playoffs and BK Kim heading to Colorado??

2005-01-02T22:54:00.000-05:00

The month of January is here. NFL playoffs begin, college football comes to a close :(, and college basketball teams get into their conference schedules. What an excellent month.

A few weeks ago when Carolina was 6-8, I predicted that they would win the Super Bowl. I was so confident that they would win their last two games of the season and end up at 8-8, get into the playoffs, win 3 playoff road games and take the 2005 Super Bowl trophy home to Carolina. Unfortunately, my prediction was wrong as Carolina lost today to the Saints 21-18, and Carolina ends the season at 7-9 after starting 1-7. Carolina was down 21-10 with 5 minutes left in the game, and scored a TD and 2 point conversion with a few minutes left, but they just ran out of time. The Panthers got the ball back with a minute left at their own 2 yard line and with no timeouts. I was extremely confident that Delhomme would lead the Panthers to a FG, that would lead to OT, and to a Panthers win and into the playoffs they would go. My dream came crashing down on me when the Saints blocked a 60 yard field goal that would have tied it and sent the game to OT. It's pretty sad when 2 NFL teams with 8-8 records make the playoffs (Vikings, and Rams). I just wish the Panthers were one of those 2 teams.

I'm not as excited about the NFL playoffs this coming weekend as I usual am. I think the main reason why I'm not excited is that there is only one real conference in the NFL and it is the AFC. Of the four games that are scheduled this week, the one I am most looking forward to is the Jets vs. Chargers on Saturday night. The Chargers completely reversed from last year going 12-4 this year after going 4-12 last year. Drew Brees had a magnificent year, and has Chargers fans wondering why the front office drafted Phillip Rivers in last years draft. The Jets had a season in which their was turmoil, but they had Curtis Martin who lead the NFL in rushing to guide them to a 10-6 record and into the playoffs. The game is in San Diego and I expect the San Diego fans to be pumped up and ready to be loud. As for the game, I expect
the Jets to win. They are a more experienced team with Pennington and Martin, and I think Herm Edwards will have that team ready to play big and shutup the NY media who has been on his and Pennington's case all year.

The Rams play the Seahawks in the first game of the doubleheader on Saturday. Being in the same division, the teams have already played twice this year. The Rams won both contests, coming from 17 points down early in the season in Seattle to beat the Seahawks. I think the Rams have the mental edge to this game, and they have just come off two big wins over the Jets and Eagles to get in. Rams will win this one too.

The Colts and the Broncos will play in the first game on Sunday. I expect the Colts to absolutely kill the Broncos in this game. The only reason the Colts lost to the Broncos today was that Peyton Manning only played one series and attempted 2 passes. This Sunday the game will be at the RCA Dome, and Peyton will be completing passes all around the field. The Colts should have no problem winning this game.

Vikings at Packers. Is this even a game? Should you waste 3+ hours of your life on this suppossedly called playoff game? The answer to both of those questions is NO. Minnesota looked horribly today, and lost to Chicago, and they slipped in the back door to the playoffs when some other teams lost. The Vikings lost to GB twice this year by the same score of 34-31. I do not expect this game to be that close. In fact the only close game of the weekend might be the Jets vs. Chargers game. The NFL playoffs are great, but many divisional weekends had better matchups than this one has.

As for BK Kim, there is a story in the Denver Post, that the Rockies might be interested in the submarine pitcher. According to the story, the Sox are willing to eat up to 80% of Kim's salary in return for a few mid level prospects. I think the Sox should try to get rid of him in almost any way that they can. I just do not think he will succeed in Boston, and I think a change of scenery might be best for both sides.

Check out this article on Terry Francona on boston.com. Very interesting article.

Til next time....

Matt

Yanks get Johnson

2004-12-30T21:35:00.000-05:00

The Yankees have reportedly finally agreed on a trade with the Diamondbacks that will send the Big Unit to NY. I am not too suprised by this, as I had a feeling it was only a matter of time before Randy Johnson put on the hated pinstripes. This trade only makes the rivarly between the Sox and Yanks that much greater. I cannot imagine if Curt was healthy enough to pitch opening day in NY against his former teammate. If that happened, that game might even get more headlines than the Shaq vs. Kobe game we had on Christmas.

Yanks rotation is now Johnson, Mussina, Pavano, Wright, and Brown.

Sox rotation is Schilling, Clement, Wells, Miller, and Arroyo.

Our rotation is going to depend a lot on how healthy our starters are. Schilling is expected to miss the first month of the season. Miller is said to be ready by opening day, but that could change. Wells, even though he has started 30 games 4 of the past 5 seasons has had back problems. Health is a major concern in Red Sox Nation, but if the Sox are healthy, I expect them to make the playoffs again in 05 whether it is by the division (which would be awesome) or the wild card. The Sox, Marlins, and Angels the past 3 years have proven that it doesn't matter how you get to the playoffs, as long as you get there.

All that being said, blogging has been light for me over my winter break, and will be until I get back to school on the 24th. Have a safe and Happy New Year.

Matt

Check out this Yankees article on ESPN. Very funny stuff.

Theo Epstein was named "Bostonian of the Year" by the Globe

2004-12-26T14:44:00.000-05:00

Theo Epstein is an awesome GM and deserves all the credit and awards he gets. Being the humble guy that he is, he always points to the players saying that they deserve the credit, because they are the ones actually playing the games. What Theo never wants to take credit for, is that he is the one who assembled the team together and therefore Red Sox fans should thank him for his efforts. Theo was named "Bostonian of the Year" by the Boston Globe today, and there is an excellent article on him in the Globe that I recommend to everybody, no matter which team you follow.

Congratulations Theo, and keep up the good work!!!

Matt

Tek Signs with the Sox!!

2004-12-25T10:36:00.000-05:00

"It's not often you find a player who embodies everything you want your franchise to be," said Epstein. "When you're lucky enough to have that player, you don't let him get away and you lock him up as long as you can and you make him the rock of your franchise."

That quote was taken from Nick Cafardo's article in the Boston Globe on the Jason Varitek signing. Varitek signed a four year deal worth 40 million dollars yesterday which will keep him in the red and white uniform through 2008. All Red Sox fans have to be extremely excited that Tek is finally signed and under contract with the Boston Red Sox.

The Sox had to deal with Scott Boras while negotiating Varitek's contract. Boras is known for asking for the sky when in negotiations. Boras is the agent who negotiated Alex Rodriguez's 10 year 252 million dollar salary. He is also the agent for Carlos Beltran, who is probably going to make the most money out of any FA available this off-season. Boras initially came out and said a few weeks ago, that he and Jason wanted a five year deal worth 55 million with a no trade clause. Many Red Sox fans balked at the idea of giving Varitek that many years, and that amount of money to Varitek. While Varitek eventually signed for less than that, it is obvious how Boras gets what he wants: start with a high figure and then work from there.

The Red Sox also named Jason Varitek the captain of the team at the press conference yesterday. Varitek is the first Red Sox captain since Jim Rice in 1989, and he is just the third captain since 1923. Varitek deserved the "C" on his uniform and I am glad he got it. Varitek embodies the perseverance, loyalty, toughness, and hard working mentality that everybody within the Red Sox organization share.

Saying all that, I think that the Sox gave in to Boras and his demands way too much. The Red Sox were bidding against themselves with Varitek, as no other team was pursuing him. I do not think any other club would have given Jason more than 3 years at 8 million per year, yet alone a 4 year deal worth 40 million dollars. It is not my money, so I am not too worried about it, but I strongly feel that by 2007 and 08 the Sox will be regretting paying 10 million a year to a catcher who will be 36 and 37 in those seasons.

Many Red Sox players were also excited about the news of Varitek's signing. Curt Schilling had his two cents to say on the subject.

"Christmas came early. I am so friggin' ecstatic about this and so happy for him. Proud that he earned the right to become a free agent and even prouder that he chose to stay where he was needed most. I felt all along that no matter what happened this winter losing 'Tek would cost us more than any player they brought in could make up. He and Doug are as good a tandem as I've ever been around. I'd heard about 'Tek in bits and pieces before coming here but I've never seen anyone put more time and effort into his job both physically and mentally than this guy. I kept getting very put off by the stat heads who argued that this is the age when he will start declining, they have no idea of his makeup, and 'Tek is pretty much worlds apart from other 32 year old catchers I have seen and played with. His value goes so far beyond his offensive numbers that he's worth whatever the number they ended up at IMO. I'm happy for him and for the club, this IMO, goes a long way in putting us on track to try and defend our world championship title."

Matt Clement also mentioned that Boston was an attractive place for him to come play for the next three years, because of the catcher situation in Boston.

"A huge thing for me was the catching situation, and hopefully that's the same as it's been for a while here. It's something that as a pitcher, when I watch games, I watch how the catcher performs and think to myself, "man, I'd love to throw to this guy" and I remember saying that many times about Varitek, both him and Mirabelli last year and that's something that I'm very excited about."

Overall, I am thrilled that Jason will be a Red Sox for the next four years. He is everything that a team wants in a catcher, and he is the backbone of the team. With that being said, I think the Red Sox did overpay for him, and gave him too much money and too many years. I guess when you are filthy rich, as John Henry is, a few million isn't going to make that much of a difference.

Merry Christmas to everyone who reads this blog!!

Matt

Wade Miller Signs with the Sox

2004-12-23T09:38:00.000-05:00

The Red Sox signed Wade Miller to a one year contract worth 1.5 million, in which he can earn up to 4.5 million in incentives. Miller was non-tendered by the Astros, which made him a free agent and allowed him to sign with any team. This is the same exact way the Red Sox signed David Ortiz in the winter of 2002. Ortiz was non-tendered by the Twins, and the Red Sox signed him to a one year 1.25 million deal. If that signing isn't the perfect example of getting, "the most bang for your buck" I don't know what is. In 2003, Ortiz hit .288, had 31 homers, and drove in 101 runs, all for the cost of 1.25 million. Red Sox fans can only hope Miller turns out to be half as good as that Ortiz deal was.

There were at least 8 clubs that were talking to Miller when he became a free agent. Bob Garber who is Miller's agent said in an espn article,
"The Red Sox were right on it from the beginning," Garber said. "They flew him to town and made him feel welcome. That's what Theo Epstein does. He makes players feel wanted, and they want to come here."

Theo was not the only person of the Red Sox organization who thought the deal was a good signing. Curt Schillng posted on SOSH his opinions of signing Miller before the Sox signed him,

"Wade Miller would be a good sign IMO. In addition to being a serious competitor he knows how to pitch. Given the dynamics of the staff that handles players here this would be a very different situation for him to be in. Alot less pressure and alot more attention. Look at what the training staff did for Pedro this past season. They got him to the post, along with his hard work for every start. I love the thought of this guy coming here and being able to come back as he can. He can pitch and he can win. Put him in front of this offense and it could be a steal. Bringing guys this good here in this kind of situation seems to me to be a win win given that he'll most likely sign a deal that's incentive laden. I think it's a great move. Considering the staff that's being assembled in NY this year is gonna be another huge challenge and pitching once again IMO will carry the day when it all comes down to it."

The only problem with Miller is that he was hurt last year and only started 15 games. He suffered a frayed rotator cuff in June, and he did not return after that. If Miller is healthy by opening day, and pitches they way he has in the past, this signing will be an absolute steal. There is a risk in signing a guy like Miller, because you never know how he is going to come back after his injury. The worst thing that can happen for the Sox, is that Miller comes back and cannot pitch they way he used to. The great thing about that is it only cost the Sox 1.5 million dollars if that happens. The reward is that he returns to his 2002 form when he went 15-4 with a 3.28 ERA. Red Sox fans around the world are hoping that Miller can repeat that 2002 performance. I'm very excited that the Sox signed Miller and I think he will be a great addition to the Red Sox staff.

Matt

Thank You Pedro Martinez

2004-12-22T16:21:00.000-05:00

This past week Pedro Martinez signed a four year deal with the Mets for over 50 million dollars. Martinez took some parting shots at managemen t, Terry Francona and Curt Schilling in the days after he left. The last week on WEEI it seems like they seem content to question why Pedro said these certain things before he left. Some people say they will not root for Martinez when he pitches for the Mets because of some of the things he said before he left. I am going to root for Martinez over the next four years, because even though he took some parting shots, he was arguably the best pitcher the Sox ever had. So thank you Pedro Martinez for all of the following achievements that you had with the Boston Red Sox.

Thank you Pedro for going 117-37 in a Red Sox uniform.

Thank you Pedro for striking out 17 Yankee batters on Sept. 10 1999 and allowing only one hit. That game is shown on ESPN Classic every Sept. 10 and I always look forward to seeing you dominate.

Thank you Pedro for outdueling Clemens on May 28, 2000. What an excellent game.

Thank you for drilling Gary Sheffield this year. If somebody steps out of the batters box on you, drill them.

Thank you Pedro for having the best season ever by a pitcher in the history of MLB in 1999. The ERA+ of 285 for that season is better than anybody has ever had since 1880.

Thank you Pedro for your guts and heart to come out of the bullpen in Game 5 of the 1999 ALDS game against Cleveland. That game was amazing. Your fastball was not there, but you pitched with brilliance and did not allow a hit for the six relief innings. You made that one of the best games I have ever seen, and for that I thank you.

Thank you Pedro for your last game in a Red Sox uniform against the Cardinals. You dominated them, retiring 14 of the last 15 batters you faced. You truly were a joy to watch.

Thank you Pedro for beaming Kareem Garcia last year in game 3 of the ALCS. Part of a pitcher's duty on the mound is to intimidate, and you definitely accomplished that. Thank you for your awesome quote on ESPN, "Who is Kareem Garcia?" Absolutely Priceless!!

Thank you Pedro for giving the Sox fans something to look forward to every 5th day. Even non-baseball fans felt compelled to watch you pitch. You were an artist on the mound, and I feel honored to have been able to watch you the past 7 years.

Thank you for the 1999 All Star Game. Striking out 5 of the first 6 batters was amazing. To do that in Fenway was awesome. Even though you had to go on the DL after the All Star Game, it was worth it for that performance.

Thank you for the feeling, the atmosphere, the level of excitement on every day that you pitched at Fenway. Seeing Curt Schilling pitch at Fenway is awesome, but you truly created an atmosphere that was beyond what any other pitcher has ever brought to Fenway.

Thank you Pedro for making me feel proud to wear a #45 Red Sox shirt. No player should ever wear #45 ever again in honor of you.

Thank you Pedro for your fun and always entertaining personality.

There are many other things that Pedro has done over the past 7 years that I am thankful for, but unfortunately if I were to list all of them this post would be ten pages long. Pedro was the best pitcher in baseball from 1999-2003 hands down. He was simply amazing!! I am sad to see him go, but I chose to remember him for the pitcher he was, instead of the things he said while he was leaving. I encourage you to do the same thing!

Thank you Pedro Martinez!!!!

Matt

Sox trade Roberts and get Payton and others in return

2004-12-21T19:09:00.000-05:00

All Red Sox fans will always remember where they were the second Dave Roberts stole second base in game 4 of the ALCS. For Red Sox fans, it is one of those moments that led to a life changing event when the Sox won the World Series. People will be telling there kids 30 years from now the story of Dave Roberts, and how he jump-started the greatest comeback in ALCS history. October 17th is one night among many, that I will never forget because of my beloved Red Sox and that stolen base.

I am not going to recount Game 4, because most of you watched it live, or have heard it about it since. If you are a person who lives a caveman like life and have never heard the story of Dave Roberts and his 9th inning stolen base, you can read it here. As great is that stolen base was, Dave Roberts was not going to fit into the 2005 Red Sox plans. He had told the front office that he wanted to start, and Theo Epstein agreed that he would not be able to give him more playing time than a 4th outfielder. Theo just traded Roberts yesterday to the Padres for Jay Payton, Ramon Vazquez, and minor league right hander David Pauley.

At first hearing this news, I was horrified. Not because the Sox had traded Dave Roberts, which I knew was inevitable, but because we had taken Jay Payton back in return. I do not have anything against Jay Payton, but I do have something against his contract for 2005 of 3.5 million. After about a half hour, I found an article that said the Sox would be getting 2.65 million from the Padres in the deal. This completely changed the nature of the deal. I went from horrified to being satisfied. I went from wondering what in the world Theo was doing, to praising this move. Let me tell you why.

Last year, Gabe Kapler was our 4th outfielder and he did a great job in that role and made $750,000. I was hoping for another type of player like Kapler who could come and fill in and platoon with Trot Nixon against lefties. Payton over the past three years has hit .275/.346/.461 (average, OBP, and SLG.) against lefties. Trot Nixon over the same three years has hit .220/.293/.348 against lefties. Payton will fill the role perfectly that Kapler had last year. My only concern about Payton is that over the course of his career he has predominantly played center field, and left field, and hardly any right field. Adjusting to Fenway's right field will be an experience, and expect a few errors by Payton in the early going as part of the learning process of playing right field in Fenway Park.

So, since the Padres picked gave the Sox 2.65 million in the trade, Payton only winds up costing the Sox $850,000, which is $100,000 more than Kapler cost last year. Considering Kapler went to play in Japan and go 2 million dollars a year to play there this was obviously a better road for the Sox to take.

The Sox also received Ramon Vazquez in the deal. Ramon Vazquez is entering his fifth year in MLB, and he has mostly been a backup all his career. He has spent time playing third, shortstop, and second base every year he has been in the majors. He might not be Pokey Reese, but he is a capable backup that can give Edgar Renteria or Mark Bellhorn a chance to rest every so often. David Pauley was also acquired in the deal with the Padres. Pauley is a pitcher who has never spent time above single A. Briefly looking at his single A stats, he looks like a guy who is having some control problems, as he is allowing 3.5 walks per 9 innings. The good thing is that Pauley is only 21, so he still has some time to fix his control problems.

This was a great trade by the Sox. It's not a trade where every Sox fan is going to be jumping up and down in December. It is a trade that will be looked on favorably during the season, when Jay Payton is hitting well against the lefties, and Trot Nixon is performing as usual and mashing righties. When you add in that a capable backup and a minor league pitcher were included in the deal, there is nothing more than you can see but thank you Dave Roberts and great trade Theo.

Matt

Delgado would look awesome in a Sox uniform

2004-12-19T23:46:00.000-05:00

There is a rumor about Carlos Delgado possibly coming to the Sox. Would that be a dream come true or what? Close your eyes, and imagine the 3,4, and 5 hitters of our lineup. Ortiz. Ramirez. Delgado. A middle of the lineup does not get much nastier than that. St. Louis has a great middle of the lineup, but I would take Ortiz, Ramirez, and Delgado over Pujols, Rolen and Edmonds. There is only one bad thing about this rumor: it has a very small chance of actually happening.

First of all, the Sox already have two first basemen in Kevin Millar and Doug Mientkiewicz. Kevin Millar has already come out and said that he told Theo that he does not want to split time with Mientkiewicz. So we know that Theo is at least going to trade of these guys. The question is can and will he trade both of these guys and make a strong push at Delgado? Millar and Mientkiewicz combine to make over 7 million in 2005. Delgado figures to get about 12 to 13 mil, which is exactly what Richie Sexson got from the Mariners. Delgado is 32, while Sexson is 29, so Delgado might wind up with a 3 year deal instead of the 4 year deal that Sexson got. Unless of course a bidding war starts, similar to the Pedro situation in which 3 years is what everybody thought he would get until the Mets came in and topped everyone's offer.

According to the Post article the Mets have already offered him a contract,
" The Mets have already offered a three-year contract to Delgado that is believed to be in the $10-12 million per year range. Delgado's agent, David Sloane, told The Post he plans to be in contact with the Mets again "soon" but reserved all other comment."

As for the Sox, they first have to get rid of the two players they have holding down that position right now. The Post says they may already have a suitor for Mientkiewicz,
" Boston is the wild card team for Delgado. The Mets don't feel they can get Delgado wrapped up by Christmas because the Red Sox are clearing their deck for a run at the former Toronto slugger, a source said. Boston was mulling trades of first basemen Kevin Millar (to parts unknown) and Doug Mientkiewicz (to Baltimore)."

If the Sox can get rid of Millar and Mientkiewicz, then the dream of seeing Delgado come to Boston would almost be complete. I mean, seriously what Red Sox fan wouldn't want a player who has averaged .283, 36 homers, and a .559 slugging percentage the past three years? I get excited just thinking about the possibility of him swinging at Fenway. For all the records the 2003 team set in offense, with the addition of a player like Delgado they might just rebreak all those records again. Here is what the proposed lineup would look like:

1. Johnny Damon
2. Mark Bellhorn
3. David Ortiz
4. Manny Ramirez
5. Carlos Delgado
6. Edgar Renteria
7. Trot Nixon
8. Bill Mueller
9. Doug Mirabelli or Jason Varitek (maybe)

If that lineup doesn't put fear into opposing pitchers I do not know what will. Although fans are allowed dream during the off-season (and I certainly due) I do not see this deal getting done. I just do not think Theo will be able to get rid of Millar and Mientkiewicz. If he can get some teams to take those two players who will cost the Sox a combined 7 mil in 2005, Delgado would only be about 5 million more per season. For the production Delgado brings I would think it would be a no brainer. Unfortunately, proposing trades on a blog are not as easy as making them in real life. Theo has done things though that nobody saw coming. We got Curt Schilling last year and basically all we gave up was Casey Fossum and a few minor leagurers. If I have learned anything as a Sox fan, its never to doubt Theo and the things that he can do in terms of trades.

Matt

Sox sign Clement!!!

2004-12-18T11:27:00.000-05:00

The Red Sox signed Matt Clement to a 3 year deal yesterday worth 25 million dollars. It was a great surprise for me last night to learn that the Sox had signed him. I thought he was going to sign with Anaheim. Clement never did visit Boston, as Theo just spoke with Clement's agent over the phone and at the winter meetings. Many people seem to think that Clement was a second tier pitcher that was available this offseason. I think Clement is better than everybody thinks, and to see if my opinion is right, I am going to compare Clement to some other free agent starters that have signed this offseason.

We all know that Pedro Martinez was obviously the best starter available this offeason. No starting pitcher is going to get near the 13 million dollars a year deal that he got from the Mets. Pedro was the only ace that was really available this offseason, as most of the other starting pitchers that were available this offseason are typically a #2 or #3 pitcher. Of the starting pitchers that have signed so far, I think that Clement, as well as Carl Pavano, Brad Radke, Jaret Wright, and Jon Lieber can all be classified as potential #2 pitchers in a rotation. These numbers are the last four years averaged together. Carl Pavano would have had the best ERA if I was just to look at last year, but I think, as do most statistians such as Dan Szymborsk that you must average at least the past 3 years, if not the past 4 to prevent from a fluke from showing up. I chose to average the last four years.

Pavano
ERA K/9 BB/9
4.70 5.91 2.49

Radke
ERA K/9 BB/9
4.16 5.29 1.21

Clement
ERA K/9 BB/9
4.11 8.41 3.90

Looking at these numbers from the past four years a few things stand out. Matt Clement has the lowest ERA of the 3 pitchers. Why if he had the lowest ERA did he draw so little attention? Matt never got any run support last year which resulted in a 9-13 record, and he walks a ton of batters. As can been seen from his BB/9 rate, that is something that Dave Wallace is going to have to work with him on. Hopefully, Clement will be able to make up for it with his strikeouts. He averaged 9.45 strikeouts per 9 innings last year, and over the past 4 years he has averaged 8.41 strikeouts per 9 innings. If Clement can keep his walk rate down, and continue to have the same strikeout rate, the Red Sox will be thrilled.

Brad Radke is a perfect example of control. His walk rate per 9 innings is unbelievably low. If I were a GM, and had to sign one of these 3 starters the first one I would go after is Radke. The Red Sox almost had Radke signed to a 3 year deal, until the Twins came and stole him away. The reason for this is that he is already familiar with the AL, and those numbers that he has put up the past 4 years are from the AL. I expect Clement's and Pavano's ERA to jump from last year to this year. The reason for the ERA jump is the pitcher is no longer getting a free out once every three innings when the pitcher comes up. The DH in the AL makes a huge difference. Clement's ERA was 3.68 last year, while Pavano's was 3.00. Doing an extremely rough estimate, I would expect Clement and Pavano's ERA to jump anywhere between .30-.50 if they have the same kind of year they did last year. It is natural for a pitchers ERA to jump coming into the AL and for a pitchers ERA to lower going into the NL. Curt Schilling, Javier Vazquez, and Kevin Brown's ERA was higher in 2004 than in 2003 and I think a big part of the reason for the jump was the switch the AL and having to face the DH. A few more numbers and some food for thought.

Pavano
BAA WHIP OPS
.284 1.41 .751

Radke
BAA WHIP OPS
.275 1.20 .732

Clement
BAA WHIP OPS
.235 1.31 .696

Hitters have trouble batting against Clement as can been seen by the .235 batting average they hit against him. His OPS(on-base% + slug) is also the lowest of any of the pitchers. Radke's WHIP is the lowest and that can be expected since walks are included in the formula, and he has the least amount of walks of any of these pitchers.

Based on all this information, I would have gone after Radke, then Clement and then Pavano. The Sox almost had Radke, then they stopped pursuing Pavano last Saturday at the winter meetings when they thought that Pedro was going to sign. Pavano signs with the Yanks and the Sox quickly turned to Clement to try and fill the hole left by Pedro. The reason why I would have first pursued Radke as the Sox did is because he is the model of consistency. Year in, year out he gives his team the same exact performance. 30+ starts, ERA around 4.00, and 200+ innings. I am dumbfounded as to why everybody was so high on Pavano. Don't get me wrong, he had an awesome year last year, but that is the first year that he has every had like that. Anybody can have a great year in their last year before free agency. Just take a look around the players who become free agents this year and the type of year they had before it. Adrian Beltre, J.D. Drew, Carlos Beltran along with Pavano had their best year by far this year. It is hard to tell if that last year was a fluke, or if the team signing these players can expect this type of performance for the next few years. The Yankees are banking on Pavano's last year being a breakout performance by him. The Sox almost fell into signing Clement and in my opinion got the more consistent and stable pitcher of the two, and they are paying him 2 million less a season and are only committed to 3 years, instead of the four that they Yankees committed to Pavano.

Matt

Beltre signs with Mariners, Braves get Hudson and Clement rumors

2004-12-16T18:48:00.000-05:00

Wow. What an awesome day in Major League Baseball. The hot shove is real hot right now, with rumors and signings happening very fast.

Adrian Beltre and Richie Sexson have both signed with the Mariners. I think the Beltre deal is a good one, but I am much more skeptical about giving 50 million over 4 years to Sexson. Somewhere, Carlos Delgado is smiling.

Tim Hudson has just been dealt to the Braves for RHP Juan Cruz, LHP Dan Meyer and OF Charles Thomas. I like this deal for both teams. The Braves get a stud starter to put alongside Smoltz in the rotation. The A's meanwhile get two players with Major League experience and have a prospect on the cusp of being called up. The A's are deep with pitching with Rich Harden, and Joe Blanton (from the Moneyball draft). A quote from the ESPN article,

"One of our goals going into the offseason was to strengthen our pitching staff," Braves general manager John Schuerholz said. "We have certainly made a major improvement."

Hudson joins a team that has won 13 straight division titles.

The 29-year-old Hudson posted 81 wins from 2000-04, tied for the most in the AL over that span. He is 92-39 with a 3.30 ERA lifetime."

Matt Clement is a guy who I would love have pitching on the Red Sox. A rotation of Schilling, Clement, Wells, Arroyo, and Wakefield would be great. There are up to 7 teams pursuing Clement according this article on angels.com. Rumors from the Sox side of things can be found at this article by Ian Browne on redsox.com, Jeff Horrigan at the Boston Herald, and Gordon Edes of the Globe. A quote from Edes' article,

"They have an offer on the table for Matt Clement, who is expected to choose from among seven teams in the next 24 hours."

Let's hope that within the next 24 hours, Clement decides to come here. If he does, I would be extremely happy, and for my second Christmas in a row, Theo would be buying me a present. Last year Theo bought me and Red Sox Nation this present.

THANKS THEO!!!

matt

Great Links to Articles

2004-12-15T19:40:00.000-05:00

Thanks to all those who have commented on my past articles. Hope you are enjoying reading them, as much as I am writing them.

Unfortunately, I have a lot of work to do the next few days, so I don't have an article of my own for you. I do have 4 great articles that you should read!!

Peter Gammons - has a great article on the Pedro signing. A must read

Bill Simmons A MUST READ ARTICLE for any sox fan. I have bookmarked this article and will read it again and again. A quote from the article, " The Red Sox won the World Series. Seven words that changed my life. Yes, I'm handling it fine."

Tom Verducci a great article. wrap up from the winter meetings with winners and losers. sox were winners, and yanks were losers. an interesting tidbit from the article,

"Matt Mantei
The reliever called the Cubs and offered to pitch for them for the minimum salary, $312,000. The Cubs inexplicably had to think about it. In the meantime, the Red Sox invited him to Boston, flew him in first class, decorated his hotel room with world championship Red Sox pennants and balloons and a bucket of locally brewed beer on ice. They also flew in manager Terry Francona to meet him. Mantei immediately signed for $750,000."

Finally and surely not least the Sox have signed Edgar Renteria to a 4 year 40 million dollar contract with a team option for a 5th year. Welcome aboard Edgar!!!

I am hoping to have a Edgar vs. OC article up sometime this weekend. It will be a very much stats oriented article. Look for that by the end of the weekend if not sooner. I'll try to be back tomorrow with a link oriented article like this.

enjoy the articles!!!!!!

matt

The New Walter

2004-12-15T01:28:00.000-05:00

Tommy Heinson has always had a favorite player on the Celtics. Since joining the Celtics in the 97-98 season Tommy's favorite has been Walter McCarty. Walter is not that talented of a player at all. He basically can only shoot 3's and he has no rebounding or defensive skills even though he is 6-10. He was acquired by the Celtics in 97 because Rick Pitino was the coach and we all know how he loves to have former Kentucky Wildcats on the team. Along with McCarty, Antoine Walker, and Ron Mercer were also on the team. Those 3 players played for Pitino at Kentucky, and Pitino also wanted them to play for him in the pros, and drafted Mercer and got McCarty from the Knicks to make it possible.

Well, Tommy has a new favorite. It's been a nice long run for Walta. Even though he was played sparingly, he always seems to make clutch shots, and Tommy has sure made it known to Celtics fans that he loves him. His familiar line of, "I LOVE WALTA" became commonplace as soon as Walta hit a clutch shot or hustled for a ball. The difference between Walta, and his successor is that Tommy's new favorite actually has potential and will be a good pro for a long time. He has more athletic ability, and he has made his presence known on this past west coast trip. His name is Tony Allen.

Tony Allen is a rookie out of Oklahoma State. At OSU, he played under Eddie Sutton, the famous coach who preaches defense and has over 700 wins. Tony is athletic, fast, and strong. He can jump, shot, and DUNK. Right now I would compare him to a former OSU alum who is playing for the Bucks. Tony reminds me a lot of Desmond in that they have the same qualities, and are the same type of player. Desmond Mason averaged 12 points in his second year in the NBA, and the last three years he has averaged 14 points, and this year he is averaging over 18 points. I feel that Tony is on a similar track to success in his career.

As fun as it is to watch Tony play right now, he stills has a few things he needs to work on. His jump shot definitely needs to improve, as he is only shooting 41 percent from the floor. He also cannot shoot 3's which is essential if you are going to be playing the position he is. I am confident that over the course of the season, we will see improvements in both of these areas. When Tony plays right now, he is all hustle. He along with this guy have made the second unit of the C's exciting and fun to watch. It is almost as if I cannot wait until the second quarter of Celtics games, in order to see these two players take the floor. They play the game with such energy and life, that some older more experienced players do not show. Tony is a slasher, and when he comes in, he just changes the game by the way the plays defense and rebounds. He is truly a joy to watch.

If these are not enough reason to tune into the Celtics, then you have to watch the games to hear Tommy Heinson announce. Yes, he is biased towards the Celtics, complains about the refs every game, and thinks on every drive that Pierce got fouled. But these all just part of the reasons that we as fans love Tommy. He is a huge Celtics fan at heart, just like us watching the game. And when Tony Allen comes in, you will be sure to hear him go on a rampage about how much of an awesome player he is. Last night during the Clippers game which went 2OT, Tony Allen made a spectular dunk on putback from a missed shot. Tommy interrupts Mike Gorman to say, "TONY ALLEN COMES FROM THE WEAKSIDE FOR THE DUNK, CAPE AND ALL." If a reference to Superman for a player who is a rookie and averaging 5 points and 15 minutes a game isn't enough for you to tune in, I don't know what will. All I know is that at 7:00 Wednesday night I will be watching the Celtics, and looking forward to when the man who wears the Cape and calls himself Tony Allen comes in.

Matt

Pedro Reportedly to the Mets

2004-12-14T01:14:00.000-05:00

I was going to launch into an article detailing how Pedro is not worth the 4 years 50 million he is reportedly getting. Right before I was about to start, I read Jayson's Stark article on Pedro. He is an awesome writer and sums everything up perfectly. Here is a quote from the article:

"But everything that comes after this will be filed under Life Without Pedro. He made their world more interesting every moment he was around. But he might very well have made their life a lot more peaceful just by deciding he had hung around long enough."

I agree.

Matt Clement anyone?????

matt

What is Omar Thinking?

2004-12-12T22:22:00.000-05:00

It is time now for the daily dosage of What is Omar Minaya thinking? For those of you not familiar with Minaya, he is the new Mets GM, and was formerly the Expos GM. I am not intentionally going to pick on him today, its just that since he has taken over as GM for the Mets, I have strongly disagreed with every decision he has made. And since this is my blog, where I get to express my opinions, I am going to do just that. (So there).

Omar’s first signing as a GM for the Mets was Kris Benson. Benson was acquired in the middle of the 2004 season, and has always been a player that had “potential” written all over him, but he has never lived up to it. Whether Omar thinks he is going to eventually live up to his potentially or he really thinks Benson is worth 22.5 million, it is a bad signing either way. As a GM you cannot pay a player for what he MIGHT bring you in the future. You have to pay players that you think will give you a certain amount of production. With Benson, the question is what type of player are you going to get. Benson’s lowest ERA was in 2000 when he went 10-12 with a 3.85 ERA. His career ERA is 4.28. Yet this is a player who will be making 7.5 million for the next 3 years, and the club has an option for 2008 for another 7.5 million.

Let’s compare Benson with a former Met who just signed with the Marlins, Al Leiter. Al Leiter might be 39, but that does not mean he cannot be successful. Randy Johnson, Roger Clemens, and David Wells are all past 40 years of age, and doing just fine. Leiter just signed a one year deal with the Marlins for 8 million dollars. Who would you rather have Benson, or Leiter based on their numbers from last year?

ERA K/9 K/BB WHIP OBA ERA+
4.50 6.75 3.00 1.21 .244 95

3.21 6.06 1.21 1.35 .218 133

Given those numbers, one would think Minaya would make the easy decision to choose Leiter, since they cost basically the same amount of money. Instead, Minaya spent over 22 million dollars on a pitcher that will become a big waste of money and a liability to the team. The stats clearly show that Leiter was the better pitcher last year, and if you look at the past five years, it is even clearer that Minaya should have chosen Leiter. Unfortunately he did not. Yesterday, I wrote about how Minaya, should have chosen Radke or even more favorable Matt Clement over Benson. I had forgotten about Leiter, but wanted to revisit this discussion, because I think it is important to show that Minaya clearly made the wrong decision.

After Omar was done making the wrong decision in the starting rotation, he decided to do the same to the bullpen. A reliever with a 3.16 ERA with an ERA+ of 135 is somebody you would figure would not get traded, right? Obviously, I was wrong. Apparently, Omar sees something in Felix Heredia whom he received from the Yankees, giving away Mike Stanton and his ERA of 3.16. If that is not bad enough, Minaya also sent the Yankees $975,000 in the deal. I just don’t get this. Heredia had an ERA of 6.28 last year with the Yanks, and he was barely put on the postseason roster. In the Yankees 11 postseason games, Heredia pitched a total of 1 2/3 innings. I would think that would tell a GM something when a pitcher does not get to pitch in playoff games, even though game 4 of the ALCS went 12 innings, and game 5 went 14 innings. Maybe Omar was busy trying to sell the Mets executives on why Benson is a good pitcher during those games. I’m not sure why he made this trade, and I do not know if anybody is.

Although rumors have quieted down about this deal, Omar had been in hot pursuit of Sammy Sosa and I expect him to still try and get him away from the Cubs. The rumored deal has been around for about 2 months with the Mets getting Sosa, and the Cubs taking Cliff Floyd from the Mets. I am not a huge Sammy Sosa fan at all, especially at the price that he is going to cost. Sammy is due 17 million in 2005, and he has a clause in his contract that says if he is traded an option for 2006 at 18 million is automatically picked up. Cliff Floyd is due 6.5 million in 2005 and 2006, according the great salary site, Dugout Dollars. Sammy last year with the Cubs hit 253./332./517 and had 35 homers. Cliff Floyd hit .260./352./462 with 18 homers. These stats are basically the same except that Sammy had 17 more homers. So the question that Minaya has to think about is 17 more homers a year worth 22 million over the next two years. According to this Mets web site, they would not take Sammy even if he was free. Obviously, they think that 17 million per year would be better spent on somebody like Carlos Beltran. If only Minaya was this smart.

Matt

Free Agent Frenzy

2004-12-12T16:46:00.000-05:00

I have decided that I wanted to put all my thoughts on sports, and particularly baseball down on the computer, not just for me to read, but for you as well. I hope you come to enjoy the blog, and visit it often, and hopefully you will find my comments interesting and will want to come back for more.

Who would have thought Boomer would ever been in a Red Sox uniform? Who would have thought that Jaret Wright would get over 21 mil for 3 years. Who saw that Paul DePodesta, who used to work with Billy Beane in Oakland would make a trade for one of the best starters in the AL in Tim Hudson? All these moves have taken place at the winter meetings in Anaheim, where the slow pace to free agency has gone to a more rapid frenzy. There are many other signings that have happened in the past few days, but I do not have the space to go over them here.

There are many signings out there that teams have overpaid for. Christian Guzman is not worth 16 million over the next four years. For someone who has a career line of .266/.303/.382 I do not see the need to pay over 4 million a year for a player like this. Jim Bowden may be trying to generate interest in his club, but signing an overpaid shortshop is not the way to do this.

Kris Benson was signed by the Mets a few weeks ago to a 3 year 22.5 millon dollar contract. Is it just me or does Omar Minaya make some crazy signings? Benson has more losses in his career than wins (47-53), and his career ERA is 4.28. Another free agent starter that was out there like Brad Radke, or Matt Clement could have been had for reasonably the same amount of money, and produce much more than Benson will. Take a look.

ERA K/9 K/BB WHIP OBA
1. 4.31 6.02 2.20 1.31 .263

2. 3.48 5.86 5.50 1.16 .267

3. 3.68 9.45 2.47 1.28 .229

Looking at these numbers, and assuming that all of these pitchers are going to get paid within a millon or two of each other, who would you choose? I know these stats do not include IP, starts per year or age, but all of those would just furthur prove what choice is the right one. For all of the talk of No. 2 (Brad Radke), Matt Clement (No.3) is the best pitcher of the three that were available at the beginning of the offseason. Sorry Omar, that I did not have my blog up earlier so that you could have used this advice in order to determine who to sign.

Matt