UNC will win the National Championship

This is what I wrote in a February 4th post on college basketball and UNC:

"I don't care what the records say. I don't care if Illinois is 22-0 and BC is 20-0. The best team in the country is North Carolina and they have two losses."

Since then, the Illini have only lost one game, a heartbreaker in the last game of the regular season at Ohio State. After leading the whole game, Matt Sylvester hit a 3 with less than 10 seconds left, to give Ohio State a 65-64 win on Senior Day. I tried to warn the Illini that this would be a tough game, but I guess Bruce Weber, head coach of Illinois doesn't read my blog. Here is what I wrote a week before the Ohio State game on Sunday February 27th.

"Illinois will try to finish the regular season undefeated, but the Buckeyes will be pumped up as they cannot participate in the NCAA tourney because of a violation, and this game is basically their national championship."

I hate to say it, but I told you that the Buckeyes would be pumped for that game.

It seems almost hard to imagine that less than two months ago BC was still undefeated and cruising through the Big East. They proceeded to go 4-4 in their last 8 games before the tourney, losing to Notre Dame, Villanova, Pitt on Senior Day, and West Virginia in the Big East tournament. They won their first game in the tournament, but the Cinderella team, University of Wisconsin Milwaukee knocked out the Eagles in the round of 32.

UNC has lost two games since February 4th when I declared that they were the best team in college basketball. They lost to Duke by a point at Cameron, and then lost in the ACC semifinals to Georgia Tech. Besides those two hiccups, the Tar Heels have cruised through the season. Their first two games of the tourney were a joke, as they won the two games by a combined score of 55 points. To get to the Final Four, the Tar Heels had a much tougher time than I expected them to have. They almost lost to Villanova, which was playing without their star forward Curtis Sumpter, as they Heels survived and won 67-66. Then on Easter weekend, I expected their game against Wisconsin to be the blowout of the weekend. Wrong! The Tar Heels allowed the Badgers to stay in the game and only beat them by 6, 88-82. In spite of their recent close calls, they will be cutting down the nets on Monday night.

The reason the Tar Heels will be cutting down the nets can basically be summed up in two words: Sean May. Sean May has had an amazing tournament so far, and when the Tar Heels get him the ball on the low block, he is unstoppable. The Illini do not have anybody that can stop May, and they have struggled playing against big strong post players all year long. The latest example was against Arizona, when Channing Frye scored 24 points on 11 of 14 shooting, and grabbed 12 boards. Frye is a great player and will be in the NBA next year, but let me tell you that he is no Sean May (and I'm a huge Arizona fan). May simply dominates whoever he plays against. In the two times he played against Sheldon Williams of Duke this year, he outplayed him both times. In the first game May scored 23 points and had 18 boards in the one point Tar Heel loss. In the rematch game, May scored 26 points, and had 24 boards and literally willed the Heels to victory. It was a performance that I will not forget for years to come. May will have an interesting test in the form of Paul Davis on Saturday night, who is having quite a tournament for himself. Davis is two inches taller than May, and is also listed as 17 pounds heavier than May, although I find that hard to believe. I feel that even though May is smaller and not is heavy, he will come out on top of this important matchup in the Michigan State vs. North Carolina game.

There is another reason that the Tar Heels will win on Monday against Illinois and that is depth. The Tar Heels go 10 deep, while Illinois had two guys that play off the bench in Jack Ingram and Rich McBride. Illinois also has Nick Smith a 7-2 center, but since he did not play against Arizona, I am going to assume that he will not play in the championship game. After all, if you're not going to play your 7-2 center when the opposing team has a center shooting 11 of 14 from the field, when will you play him? Even more important than just the depth that UNC is the quality of that depth. Marvin Williams would be starting on any other team in college basketball and would be averaging over 20 points. Instead, he is the best 6th man in America, and he is likely to be the #1 pick in this year's draft, according to many experts. Marvin is a 6-9 power forward that can shoot the 3 with the best of them, but can also play inside and play tough. In the second round game against Iowa State, Williams had an unbelievable stat line: 26 minutes, 20 points, 15 boards, 1 block, 2 steals, and shot 8 of 12 from the field, and 2 of 4 from behind the arc. This guy is absolutely the best weapon any coach could have coming off the bench. UNC also has a defensive stopper in David Noel, as well as a 3 point threat in Melvin Scott coming off the bench.

After 6 months of college basketball, and 4 months of waiting, college basketball fans are finally going to see the matchup they have been waiting for. UNC vs. Illinois. It doesn't quite have the ring of a Duke vs. UNC game, but it promises to be just as exciting, if not more than those games. At least 6 of the players in this game will be in the NBA within the next two years (Dee Brown, Deron Williams, Sean May, Raymond Felton, Rashad McCants, and Marvin Williams). UNC will cut down the nets on Monday and Roy Williams will celebrate in his first championship. The Illini had a great season, but will come up short, because they do not have an answer for Sean May or the depth that Carolina has.

We have waited long enough, and know we will finally get to see the game, and let the results speak for themselves. The results will point to UNC being National Champions for 2005.

Players to Watch in Thursday's Games

Louisville vs. Washington 7:10PM

Both of these teams play fast paced and the score of this game will definitely be in the 80's, if not higher. Washington plays a three guard set with Nate Robinson leading the attack. Although Robinson is a few inches short of six feet, his vertical is 43 inches, and he is as quick Earl Boykins. Robinson can shoot the 3, drive, and he makes things happen out on the floor. He almost left Washington last year after his sophomore year, but he decided to come back for one more year. Robinson will most likely enter the draft this year, and will continue to be the little pest that he is out on the court right now in the NBA.

Francisco Garcia is a player any college basketball fan has known about since his freshmen year. He is the type of player that coaches want to have the ball in their last possession. Garcia is great, because not only can he create his own shoot, but he also is smart enough to know when to drive and kick the ball to the open man. Garcia is also an excellent free throw shooter at 87 percent. Garcia was honored on Senior Day in Louisville, even though he is only a junior, because he is leaving after this year to go to the NBA. Oh, and by the way, in the two biggest games of the year Garcia had 27 points in the first round game against LA Lafayette, and then had 21 in the rout of Georgia Tech.

Wisconsin Milwaukee at Illinois 7:25PM
When you play the Panthers, you better be ready to defend the 3 point line. In their first round game against Alabama, the Panthers hit 12 three pointers, 10 of them in the first half in knocking out No. 5 seed Alabama. They followed that up in their second round game against BC, by hitting 11 three pointers, and sending a team that started the year 20-0 back home to Boston. Unfortunately, for the Panthers Illinois is much better than the two teams they have already faced. If the Panthers are going to have any shot, Ed McCants has to have a huge game. In both first round games he hit 4 three pointers, and the Panthers need some more of his magic touch in order to keep the Cinderella shoe on for another day.

How can you only mention one player from Illinois to direct your defensive effort towards? Answer: you can't. You can't mention Dee Brown, without mentioning the point guard who runs the show (Deron Williams), and the other backcourt mate, Luther Head. These three guards are almost unstoppable and they have lead Illinois to a 34-1 record this year. Dee Brown might be the most entertaining of the 3 guards simply for his speed, and his ability to change the game, either on offense or on defense. Against Michigan when Illinois was down late in the second half, Dee came up with 3 straight steals that lead to baskets to lead the Illini to victory and keep them unbeaten. He has an ultra quick release on his shot, and he has NBA range and then some. There is no way you can watch the Illini and not admire the type of player and effort that Dee gives.

West Virginia at Texas Tech 9:40
Who would have thought the Mountaineers would be in the sweet sixteen? I did pick them to win their first round game against Creighton, but I did not have the guts to pick them to beat Wake Forest. I don't imagine that many people did. This team has come almost out of nowhere, and up to this point, has won the most entertaining game in the tournament. This team does not have a player that averages more than 12 points a game, yet somehow they managed to put up 111 points on Wake Forest. If there is one player to watch in this game for UWV it is Mike Gansey. Gansey is a transfer from St. Bonaventure, and he was on the team a few years ago when they voted to forfeit their last two games of the regular season. Gansey scored 19 of his 29 points in the two overtimes in the win over Wake Forest. Gansey has a nose for the ball, and he always seems to be in the right place at the right time. This kid has instincts, and has basketball smarts that many players his age are lacking. If there is a loose ball in this game or a rebound that is important, look for Gansey to be in the mix.

Ronald Ross is a former walk-on at Texas Tech, and he is somebody that coach Bobby Knight has continually praised as one of the hardest working kids Knight has ever coached. Coming from a coach that has over 800 victories, that is no small feat. Ross is a guard that shines brightly in Bobby Knight's motion offense. Ross is a great 3 point shooter, and he is the leader and the go to guy for the Red Raiders. When Ross and Jarious Jackson play well, so do the Red Raiders. If these two guys are neutralized, UWV could be headed to the elite 8.

Arizona at Oklahoma State 9:55 PM
This is the game that I am looking forward to the most. I am a huge Arizona fan, and I am counting the hours until the game starts. Oklahoma State went to the Final Four a year ago, and brings in a very experienced team, but the one player that might be the X factor is the freshmen: JamesOn Curry. I first saw JamesOn play on February 7th against Oklahoma on Big Monday when he scored 22 points and looked like the diaper dandy that he was expected to be. Since that game he has scored in double figures 8 out of the past 11 games. In the first two games of the tournament, JamesOn scored 31 points, hit 5 of 6 three pointers, and was 12 of 14 from the free throw line. Other analysts might talk about how the Wildcats need to stop Joey Graham or John Lucas, but the X factor for the Cowboys is JamesOn Curry.

When you think of Arizona, you think of Salim Stoudamire. Everybody knows that the Wildcats will only go as far as Salim will take them. Salim has been the best outside shooter this year in college basketball, as he shot 51% on three pointers for the year. In the first round he hit 8 three pointers, and scored 45 points. If you give Salim enough room to breathe on the court, that is too much. If your playing defense on him, you must be up in his face, and force him to drive to the basket. That is easier said than done. He has such a quick release, and the Wildcats run all sorts of screens, and pick and rolls to get him open to launch a 3. And it doesn't matter where he gets the ball on the court, because he is always a threat to shoot it.

"When fellow senior and friend Channing Frye was asked about Stoudamire's range, he just laughed.

"Range? What range?" Frye said. "His range is forever."

Asked the same question, Stoudamire shrugs.

"I don't look where I am on the court," he said. "I just let it go."

Olson said Stoudamire and Steve Kerr are the best long-range shooters he's coached." link

So although Channing Frye and Hassan "HOT SAUCE" Adams play an integral role in Arizona's offense, it is Stoudamire that needs to be stopped first and foremost. Otherwise, it is going to be a long day for the Cowboys defense.


Matt

Perfection

I guess this is what happens when every waking second you are thinking about college basketball and the implications that each game will have on the NCAA tournament. Although I got all 65 teams right, don't think it came without a price. The price I paid was: watching college basketball every night since November, constantly looking at team schedules, checking RPI numbers daily, and reading countless articles on the net about the sport I love. I hope you enjoy the tournament over the next three week as I know I am going to, and remember next year to keep coming back to my blog every Monday for my 65 picks on who will make the NCAA tournament.

Justin via Matt from Florida

Predicting the NCAA Tournament

As most of you know, I have been predicting who will make the NCAA Tournament for the past 6 weeks. Well, now is the time when we will actually see how well I have been doing as Selection Sunday is just a few days away. Every day, I will be making revisions to these list, and my list revision will be done on Sunday afternoon. I am leaving for Florida tomorrow, but I will be calling my brother every day with the revisions that I want him to make. So, without further ado, here is the field of 65:

First all of the automatic bids:
America East: Vermont
Atlantic 10: George Washington
ACC: Duke
Atlantic Sun: Central Florida
Big 12: Oklahoma St.
Big East: Syracuse
Big Sky: Montana
Big South: Winthrop
Big Ten: Illinois
Big West: Utah St.
Colonial Athletic Association: Old Dominion
Conference USA: Louisville
Horizon League: Wisconsin-Milwaukee
Ivy: Penn
Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference: Niagara
Mid Continent Conference: Oakland
Mid American Conference: Ohio
Mid Eastern Athletic Conference: Delaware State
Missouri Valley Conference: Creighton
Mountain West Conference: New Mexico
Northeast Conference: Farleigh Dickinson
Ohio Valley Conference: Eastern Kentucky
Pac 10: Washington
Patriot League: Bucknell
SEC: Florida
Southern: UT-Chattanooga
Southland: SE Louisiana
Southwestern Athletic Conference: Alabama A &M
Sun Belt Conference: LA Lafayette
West Coast Conference: Gonzaga
Western Athletic Conference: UTEP

These are the teams that I feel will be getting the remaining 34 at large bids.

Big East (5): UConn, Pitt, BC, West Virginia, Villanova
Big 12 (5): Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Texas, Iowa State
ACC (4): North Carolina, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, N.C. State
SEC (4): Mississippi State, LSU, Alabama, Kentucky
Conference USA (3): Cincinnati, Charlotte, UAB
Big 10 (4): Wisconsin, Michigan State, Iowa, Minnesota
Pac 10 (3): Arizona, UCLA, Stanford
Big West (1): Pacific
Missouri Valley Conference (2): Southern Illinois, Northern Iowa
Mountain West (1): Utah
West Coast Conference (1): St. Mary's
Western Athletic Conference (1): Nevada

Keep checking back daily for the changes that I will be making via my brother to the bracket. I hope to at least get 61 or 62 teams right, with the goal being perfection of 65.


Matt

Viewing Guide for March 7-13

It's Championship Week in college basketball, which is one of the best weeks in the entire year. Every team in college basketball has a chance to go dancing, if they win their conference tournament. ESPN is airing 99 games during the course of the week, and here are a few that you should check out.


Monday


College Basketball

St. Mary's vs. Gonzaga 11:59 ESPN
So what if the game is on at 11:59? These two teams played twice this year, with each team winning one time. This time they meet in the WCC championship game, where the automatic bid will be decided. Both of these teams will be dancing, regardless because they have had great seasons. This game is for bragging rights, and important to the seeding of these teams. I cannot wait to stay up tonight til 2:30 AM to watch this one!!

NBA

Philadelphia at Miami 7:30PM
C Webb is now in Philly to play second fiddle to AI. It won't matter in this game, as Shaq and D Wade will lead the Heat to victory.

MLB

New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox 7pm
This is the first game between these two teams, since the memorable game 7 comeback win last October. Even though these two teams hate each other, it will not show in this game, as all the minor leaguers will play the majority of the game.


Tuesday


College Basketball

Detroit at Wisconsin-Milwaukee 9:00PM ESPN
The thing I love about championship week is that you finally get a chance to see all the mid-majors play, and see how good they actually are. I've been hearing about RPI numbers, W-L records, and SOS of these teams for months. Enough of that; I want to see these teams play. UWM has had a great year at 23-5, and will try to get the automatic bid from the Horizon league.

NBA

Memphis at Sacramento 10:30PM

With C Webb in Philly, this might be the first time that Memphis can claim that they are a better team than Sactown. Let's see if they can prove it.


Wednesday


College Basketball

Providence vs. West Virginia 2pm ESPN
Losing their last game of the regular season against Seton Hall really hurt UWV chances of making the tourney. They need at least 2 wins in the Big East tourney to get in.

Tulane vs. DePaul 3:30 ESPN2
The Blue Demons lost 4 out of their last 6 and therefore are firmly on the bubble.

Seton Hall vs. Georgetown 7pm ESPN
After losing their last 5 games of the regular season, the Hoyas need a huge run in the Big East tourney to get into the dance.

Rutgers at Notre Dame 9pm ESPN
The Fighting Irish need at least 1 win in the tourney to feel safe about going to the big dance.

NBA

Atlanta at Boston 7pm FSN
Antoine plays against his former team that traded him to the Celtics 2 weeks ago. Look for Walker and the Celts to have a big night.


Thursday

College Basketball

Pitt vs. Villanova 2pm ESPN
This is why the Big East is so fun to watch. You get to watch great matchups, such as this one on a Thursday afternoon on Championship Week. I love it!!

Arizona State vs. Washington 9:15 FSN
Don't count out Ike Diogu and AZU making a run in the Pac 10 tourney to get into the dance. Ike is just plain sick, and he will be playing in the NBA for 15 years to come.

NBA

Minnesota at Miami 7pm TNT
Will KG have to guard Shaq in this game? If so, I think Shaq can handle KG inside without a problem. Nevertheless, it will be an interesting matchup to watch.


Friday

College Basketball

Do I really need to tell you what games to watch today? If you don't already know, I guess you'll never know. Put on ESPN the whole day for ACC, Big East, and Big Ten conference tournaments. Also on FSN, there will be the Pac 10 tournament games.

NBA

Detroit Pistons at Boston Celtics 7:30 FSN
This a huge game for the Celts against arguably the best team in the East. It will be interesting to see how the Celts new additions fare in this game.


Saturday


College Basketball

Conference USA Championship Game 11:30AM CBS
Who is going to be in this game? My guess is Louisville and Cincinnati. I was not a fan of Louisville earlier in the season, but Larry O'Bannon, Francisco Garcia, and Taquan Dean convinced me this team is for real.

American East Championship 11:30 ESPN
Will Vermont win the American East in Coppenwrath's last season? I sure hope so, as this guy is a huge force, and I would love to see him play against big time centers in the tourney.

Pac 10 Championship 6pm ESPN
I want Arizona and Washington to be in this game so bad it's not even funny. The last Arizona vs. Washington game, I paced in my room the entire game, only to have my Wildcats fall a few points short. I want revenge on the Huskies!!

Big East Championship 8pm ESPN
I predict that UConn will win the Big East championship. But I guess we will just have to wait and see....


Sunday


College Basketball

Selection Show 6pm CBS
The time is here!! After months of waiting, teams find out if they have made the tourney!!


Matt

I will be in Florida the next two Sundays, so there will not be Viewers Guides for those weeks. All you need to know is watch the tournament on CBS!!!

Comparing The Brackets

It's Tuesday, so that means it's time for my weekly column comparing my brackets with those of Joe Lunardi's, Bracketology 101's, and this week I am also going to compare mine with Stewart Mandel of Sports Illustrated. Here are the picks on which we had different opinions.

Joe Lunardi has three picks which were different from mine and those teams are Monmouth (N.J.), Creighton, and Saint Joseph's.

Stewart Mandel from SI has 4 picks which I did not pick and those teams are: Wichita State, Northern Iowa, Saint Joseph's and Gardner and Webb.

Craig and Chris from Bracketology 101 only have 1 pick out of 65 that I disagree with them on, and that is Creighton.

Now, I am going to explain to you, why I did not include any of these 6 bubble teams in my predictions.

Creighton: They have won their last 5 games and now stand at 20-10 and 11-7 in the tough MVC. They also have big non-conference wins against Xavier, Nebraska, Ohio State and Missouri. Creighton was the 66th team, meaning they were one spot out of being included in my bracket. I decided to put Indiana in, after their big win against Michigan State on Sunday. If Creighton gets to the finals in the MVC, I think they are in, because the last 6 years the MVC has had at least 2 teams in the tourney. This year it could very well be Creighton and Southern Illinois.

Wichita State: After looking like a sure tournament team a few weeks ago, they have now lost 5 of their last 6. Last night they lost when Northern Iowa hit a 3 at the buzzer to win it. This team has no momentum, and is definitely on the outside looking in right now. They must make some noise in the MVC tournament to even be considered.

Northern Iowa: This is another team from the MVC vying for a spot in the tourney. They certainly can play, as they have wins over Iowa State, Southern Illinois, Wichita State, and University of Missouri Kansas City. I think that Southern Illinois is the only team from the MVC that is a lock. Creighton, Wichita State and Northern Iowa all have a shot at getting in, and its going to come down to the conference tournament. I can't wait.

Saint Joseph's, Gardner and Webb, and Monmouth (N.J.) were picked by at least one of the analysts. For these three teams, check out my Monday post, where I explained why I do not think these teams will make the tournament.


Matt