Monday, February 21, 2005

Predicting the NCAA Tourney Round 4

These are the 65 teams that I feel will make the tournament, if the selection committee had to make all their decisions on who's in and who's out, today. New teams that have been added this week are noted in bold.

Big East (7): Boston College, Villanova, Notre Dame, Syracuse, Pitt, Georgetown, UConn
ACC (7): Duke, North Carolina, Wake Forest, Maryland, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, Miami
Conference USA (7): Louisville, Charlotte, Memphis, Cincinnati, DePaul, Marquettee, Houston
Big 12 (6): Oklahoma State, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Iowa State, Texas
SEC (5): Kentucky, Florida, LSU, Alabama, Mississippi State
Pac 10 (4): Washington, Arizona, Stanford UCLA
Big 10 (3): Illinois, Michigan State, Wisconsin
A10 (2): Saint Joseph's, George Washington
WCC (2): St. Marys (CA), Gonzaga
America East (1): Vermont
Atlantic Sun (1): Gardner and Webb
Big Sky (1): Portland State
Big South (1): Winthrop
Big West (1): Pacific
Colonial Athletic Association (1): Old Dominion
Horizon League (1): Wisconsin Milwaukee
Ivy League (1): Penn
Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference (1): Niagara
Mid Continent Conference (1): Oral Roberts
Mid-American Conference (1): Miami (Ohio)
Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference (1): Coppin State
Missouri Valley Conference (1): Southern Illinois
Mountain West (1): Utah
Northeast (1): Monmouth (N.J.)
Ohio Valley Conference (1): Tennessee Tech
Patriot League (1): Holy Cross
Southern Conference (1): Davidson
Southland Conference (1): SE Louisiana
Southwestern Athletic Conference (1): Alabama A&M
Sun Belt Conference (1): LA Lafayette
WAC (1): Nevada

Teams that have been eliminated from the tourney since last week:


UAB: 4 straight losses in conference does not bode well for an at large bid.

Minnesota: Losing big to Michigan State, and then barely beating Ohio State did this team in. They certainly have a great chance of being in next week if they beat Iowa and Purdue this week.

Utah State: Losing to Pacific in a game they should have won, and then losing to Cal State Fullerton did this team in. They need to win their last 3 games, and then make some noise in the Big West tournament to get in.

Wichita State: 3 straight losses means no bid for Wichita State this week. They have two huge games coming up: Saturday against Southern Illinois and then on Monday vs. Northern Iowa. If they can win those 2 games, they will be in good position.

Samford:They have lost 3 of their last 4 games, and lost on Saturday to Tennessee Tech, which now leads the conference.

Denver:Losing one game to a team that is below .500 in the conference was enough for Denver to slid out of my predictions in the competitive Sun Belt Conference.


Matt

11 Comments:

At 4:24 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I love doing this stuff.

Here are my comments: I think you are missing two teams that have a very good shot at making it - UTEP and New Mexico. New Mexico especially is almost a lock. I also think that South Carolina has a pretty fair shot, and I'd be surprised if a second MAC team didn't make it after Miami (whoever has the best final run out of Akron, Buffalo, Bowling Green or possibly even Western Michigan).

On the other side, I'd say that Miami, Houston and UCLA are all long shots to make it.

I think both Ga Tech and Marquette need a number of wins to get in. I also think that Texas, with home games against Missouri and Oklahoma and away games at Oklahoma State and Texas Tech, is about to play their way out of the tournament.

Finally, I'd be amazed if Va Tech makes it. In the ACC, the top 3 are obviously in. After that, I think Md and Ga Tech have an edge based on their history and reputations. Plus, if you look at Va Tech's results, they have losses to bad teams (VMI, St. Johns, Fla St., Virginia), and they have losses by wide margins (Duke by 35, NC by 34, Wake by 20). Meanwhile, 4 of their 7 conference wins are by 2 points or less. One Duke upset does not a season make.

 
At 8:28 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I would just like to ask for a moment of silence in the memory of what the missouri tigers once used to be........... thank you.

 
At 11:52 PM, Blogger matt said...

Thank you for your comment. I almost included UTEP. They are the 66th team right now in my book. Refer to my comments in my Tues night/Wed. morning post on UTEP.

I did not include New Mexico b.c. i do not take into account Monday's games. That win over Utah is huge, and they have a good chnace to be in next week IMO. Their SOS is 274 tho, which is really going to hurt them. Their RPI is 92 which is very high also, though I am not sure how much stock to put into RPI.

I agree with you on the MAC team, tho I am unsure which team it will be also. South Carolina I think needs to perform really well to get in. They need to win their game against Florida this Sunday, IMO.

Miami, Houston, and UCLA all have winning records in tough conferences. I consider confrence records a lot, so that is why I like these teams to get in. UCLA has a huge game against ND this week, nad Miami just beat FSU tonight. 8-6 in the ACC is a great start. Houston is 8-5 i believe, and that is a very good record for the CUSA.

GA Tech no doubt needs to play well down the stretch. Also, Marquette needs some big wins as well. I think GA Tech is more of a lock right now than Marquette as Marquette is 6-7 in conference.

Texas def. needs to win some games, and their lost to TT hurt tonight. But they played well early in the season, and I dont think u can discount that just b.c. tucker and aldridge are out for the year.

Finally on the top 3 in the ACC i agree with u. i also think as u do, that based on their reputations GA Tech and MD will get in, although i cannot figure out MD with their loss to clemson tonight. what a crazy up and down season. as for VA Tech I think they need to win 2 of their last 3 games (with 2 against NC State, and MD) and then win 1 game in the ACC tourney. then i think they are in. but my predictions are based on the games through monday morning so at 7-6 in the ACC and with some big wins, i felt they were in.

anyways, thx for stopping by and posting a very intelligent and thought out comment. i hope u continue to comment.

as for missouri i am sorry about the tigers. just be happy that kareem rush is on the bobcats :)

matt

 
At 5:04 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Thanx for including Wake.

 
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