Tuesday, February 22, 2005

Comparing The Brackets

As many of you know who visit the blog regularly, every Tuesday I take a look at what the experts have predicted for the field of 65, and compare their predictions with mine. So, without further ado, here are the links to Joe Lunardi's picks, as well as Bracketology's 101 picks, and Michael Lazarus picks. Michael Lazarus as of Tuesday night at 11:30 did not have his picks up yet on FoxSports.com. Therefore, I am not going to compare my picks to his this week, because I want to post this now.

Joe Lunardi had 4 teams that he picked that I did not and they are UTEP, Minnesota, Wichita State, and Farleigh Dickinson.

Craig and Chris from Bracketology 101 had 6 picks which differed from mine and they are Minnesota, NC State, Creighton, Farleigh Dickinson, Buffalo, and Denver.

I examined all of these teams while making my selections and let me explain why they did not make the field of 65.

UTEP: They lost at Pacific on Bracket Buster Saturday by 7 points. Right now, I think the WCC is only strong enough to get one team into the tourney. Nevada will definitely get in, because they have had a great season. UTEP has 3 remaining games all at home and if they win those 3, and then win at least 1 game in their conference tourney, I think they are in.

Minnesota: The Golden Gophers had a tough week having to face Michigan State and Ohio State. They beat Ohio State by 2, and lost to Michigan State by 19. My problem with the Golden Gophers is that they are only 7-6 in the weak Big Ten. They have 2 games which when you look at the Big Ten standings may not seem tough, but they really are. They have to play Iowa at home and then travel to Purdue. When they travel to Purdue, it will be Senior Day at the game for the Boilermakers. Also, it will be Gene Keady's last home game as Purdue's coach. If they win both of those games, I think they will be in next week.

Wichita State: I am sorry but losing your last 3 games does not bode well to get an at large spot in my predictions, even if the losses were against good teams. Wichita State lost to Bradley (12-12, 5-10 in conference), and then lost to Creighton, and then to the leader of the MAC, Miami (Ohio). This team has a huge game against MVC leader Southern Illinois on Saturday. I cannot wait to see the outcome of this game. They won by 2 the last time these two teams faced, but this time the game is at Southern Illinois with first place in the MVC up for grabs.

Farleigh Dickinson: This team is in second place in their conference, but because of their win against first place Monmouth (N.J.) last week, analysts are picking them for the field of 65. They are still a game behind Monmouth in the standings, and the two teams split the season series. Both teams have 3 games left against teams they should beat, which means one thing: the automatic bid for this conference is going to come down to the conference tournament. Plain and simple.

NC State: This team is only 5-7 in the ACC, and yet some people are still picking them for the field of 65 (I almost picked them myself). Why is this? Well, because they are a good team that has beat some very good opponents this year (Georgia Tech and Maryland twice, VA Tech). They have two absolutely critical games this week against North Carolina and VA Tech. If they can keep the Carolina game somewhat respectable and then beat VA Tech, they might get into my predictions next week, even with a record of 6-8 in the ACC.

Creighton: Talk about giving love to the mid majors! I do not see Creighton getting in right now as they stand at 17-10 overall and 8-7 in the MVC. They have beaten Wichita State twice, Ohio State, Xavier and Northern Iowa. But for me to consider them, they must win their next 3 games (including a tough one against Illinois State) and then win a few games in their conference tournament. Then, and only then, will I pick them.

Buffalo: The MAC might get two teams into the tournament, but in order for Buffalo to get in I feel they must win their final 3 games, including a matchup that will determine who gets second place in the MAC against Akron. Miami (Ohio) looks more and more like a sure thing out of the MAC. Buffalo has some good wins, but they haven't done enough yet to warrant a bid.

Denver: Conference tournament. Those two words explain how you know which team will make it out of the Sun Belt Conference. LA Lafayette is currently in first place in the west division and has the best conference record. Denver has beaten them twice this season, but is in second place. In reality, it does not really matter what their records are in conference, but the bid from the conference is going to be determined by who wins the conference tournament.


Matt

51 Comments:

At 6:53 AM, Blogger SportsProf said...

The interesting thing from your breakdown is that only two conferences will get two bids (you have them getting three or more or just one). I'm not sure St. Joe's will make it if they don't win the A-10 tournament, and St. Mary's could have trouble as well (although they have played very well). A lot depends on the conference tournaments of the conferences that only get 1 bid. For example, if Pacific doesn't win its conference tourney, will they still get an at-large bid? My guess is that when the dust settles, you'll have about 2-3 conferences who get two and only two teams in, if only because the conference favorite doesn't win its tournament and that favorite's body of work has been good enough to get it in. Good stuff.

 
At 12:27 PM, Blogger matt said...

Sports Prof,

Thanks for the comment and for stopping by.

I think ST. Joe's has enough to get in, even if they dont win the A10 Tourney. They are 12-1 in the A 10 and that has to count for something IMO, even though that conference is not nearly as strong as it was last year. St. Mary's I see gettting in too even if they dont win the WCC b.c. they have had a good year and had some big wins (Gonzaga). Unless they totally fall apart these next 2 weeks i see them getting in.

about the conference tournaments I totally agree. i think pacific has done enough that even if they lose in the big west tourney i think they get in. Also, Vermont is in the same kind of situation, and davidson is in that situation to an extent too. i totally agree with u that when all is said and done about 3 conferences will get 2 teams in just for that reason. it is impossible to predict what teams will lose in their conf. tournaments right now, but it is a great point.

thx again for stopping by and for posting a very well thought out comment.

matt

 
At 1:19 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

So long as St. Joe's finishes the regular season with one conference loss in the A-10, they are in. And St. Mary's is in for sure.

I think Wichita state can pull it together to get in. Fairleigh Dickinson ... I just don't get. I mean, who have they beaten? They've played a couple of major conference teams - Az. State, California, Rutgers, even Pepperdine and Buffalo. They've lost each of those games. Perhaps the commentators are trying to reward them for playing a tough non-conference schedule, but you just can't let them in.

Also, Minnesota may be on the bubble, but they need to do a lot to get in, IMO. Like make the finals of the Big ten tourney. They lost to Northwestern and Florida State. They have one signature win over Wisconsin....I think they still have a bunch of work left.

I think one of those MAC teams will just about win out and make the NCAA.

My question is this: What small conference regular season champs will make it if they are upset in conference tournaments? Pacific will, for sure.

What about Vermont? (Speaking of which, I'm surprised that nobody has mentioned Boston U as a possible bubble team)

Winthrop?

Old Dominion?

Wisconsin Milwaukee?

Holy Cross?

Davidson?

My guess is that Vermont and Old Dominion would be the best possibilities, but none of those schools are sure to make it unless they win their tourneys.

 
At 2:16 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Now that I read your comments more thoroughly, I see my small school question isn't entirely new. OK, well then, who are the 4 #1 seeds as of right now?

Illinois is obvious. And as much as I don't think they are even a threat to win it all, you HAVE to put BC down as a #1 (even if they lose a second game). And I think most would agree that UNC remains a #1, despite the Duke loss.

After them, all of the contenders have recent losses - Wake, Kansas, Duke, Kentucky, Ok St., Louisville...

I think that means that, if the tournament were seeded today, Arizona would sneak in as a #1 seed, despite the pac 10.

However, the tourney doesn't start today. My prediction is that in the end, the #1 seeds will end up being Illinois, UNC, BC and Kentucky.

Or how about this for a discussion topic? Which teams have a legitimate shot to cut down the nets? For a long time, I thought that about 8 or 9 teams had a chance, but now I think the true contenders are narrowed down to 6 teams. I'll let you guys start off with your thoughts first, though.

 
At 4:15 PM, Blogger matt said...

Thanks for stopping by.

I agree that Wichita State can still pull it together, but they def. have some work to do. Their RPI is 46, but their SOS is 140. they are 1-1 vs. top 25, and 1-0 vs. 26-50, and 2-2 vs. 51-100. they have two huge games against southern illinois and northern iowa, and must win at least one, if not both.

F. Dickinson hasnt done enough in my opinion to get in. they need to win their conference tourney.

minnesota is def. a team taht could get in, but they need to win their last 3 games, with a big game tonight against iowa. if they win their last 3 games, and win 1 or 2 in their big 10 tourney, they are in.

you ask a great question regarding conference tournaments. it will be very interesting to see what teams get in, if they lose in thier conf. tourney. i would say that vermont, davidson, and old dominion have the best shots of getting an at large if they do not win their conf. tourney.

matt

 
At 4:17 PM, Blogger matt said...

regarding your 2nd question, i think the 4th #1 seed would be wake forest as of today. however if AZ wins their last 3 games, and wins the pac 10 tourney they are are a #1 seed. i hope this happens as i am an AZ fan, and they are playing great right now, so they might end up being the 4th #1 seed.

i agree with your first 3 #1 seeds.

matt

 
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