Sunday, December 12, 2004

Free Agent Frenzy

I have decided that I wanted to put all my thoughts on sports, and particularly baseball down on the computer, not just for me to read, but for you as well. I hope you come to enjoy the blog, and visit it often, and hopefully you will find my comments interesting and will want to come back for more.

Who would have thought Boomer would ever been in a Red Sox uniform? Who would have thought that Jaret Wright would get over 21 mil for 3 years. Who saw that Paul DePodesta, who used to work with Billy Beane in Oakland would make a trade for one of the best starters in the AL in Tim Hudson? All these moves have taken place at the winter meetings in Anaheim, where the slow pace to free agency has gone to a more rapid frenzy. There are many other signings that have happened in the past few days, but I do not have the space to go over them here.

There are many signings out there that teams have overpaid for. Christian Guzman is not worth 16 million over the next four years. For someone who has a career line of .266/.303/.382 I do not see the need to pay over 4 million a year for a player like this. Jim Bowden may be trying to generate interest in his club, but signing an overpaid shortshop is not the way to do this.

Kris Benson was signed by the Mets a few weeks ago to a 3 year 22.5 millon dollar contract. Is it just me or does Omar Minaya make some crazy signings? Benson has more losses in his career than wins (47-53), and his career ERA is 4.28. Another free agent starter that was out there like Brad Radke, or Matt Clement could have been had for reasonably the same amount of money, and produce much more than Benson will. Take a look.

ERA K/9 K/BB WHIP OBA
1. 4.31 6.02 2.20 1.31 .263

2. 3.48 5.86 5.50 1.16 .267

3. 3.68 9.45 2.47 1.28 .229

Looking at these numbers, and assuming that all of these pitchers are going to get paid within a millon or two of each other, who would you choose? I know these stats do not include IP, starts per year or age, but all of those would just furthur prove what choice is the right one. For all of the talk of No. 2 (Brad Radke), Matt Clement (No.3) is the best pitcher of the three that were available at the beginning of the offseason. Sorry Omar, that I did not have my blog up earlier so that you could have used this advice in order to determine who to sign.


Matt

11 Comments:

At 10:43 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Matt

Jaret Wright was dominant for a stretch of the year and is most definitely deserving of his contract. I mean look at his stats. ERA 3.28, whip 1.28, and the batting average against him which was .242. Those are all pretty decent numbers. I think that he's worth 7 mil a year.

 
At 10:56 PM, Blogger matt said...

Thanks for the comment

Wright might have been dominant last year, but one good year does not mean you deserve 7 mil a year. Jaret Wright's career ERA is 5.09, his career WHIP is 1.53, and his career BAA is 2.72. I really think that Wright really just benefited being under the tutelage of Leo Mazzone. Mazzone is to pitchers what Coors Field is to hitters. That comparison might be a little extreme, but Mazzone is an awesome pitching coach. For a great article on Mazzone check out JC's Blog at http://www.sabernomics.com/. The December 3rd post is all about Wright and how he benefited from Mazzone.


matt

 
At 2:05 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Well I'm with Matt on the Jaret Wright deal. I saw that as a huge misstep by the Yanks. I don't see him doing well at all in the AL, especially in NY. Benson I saw as a huge risk, one the Mets can't afford to make, not to mention they just signed Pedro to a 4-year deal. Another risk. Thats a lot of risks for a team already in trouble financially.

On the other hand, I wasn't THAT outraged at the Guzman deal. Sure, he hasn't done outstanding in his career, and wouldn't deserve a 4 year deal in my eyes. But 4 mil a year is only slightly overpaying him in my eyes. Maybe 2 or 3 would be market value...so its not as bad as the pitcher values. I know SP is overvalued, but cmon....Wright and Benson were highly overpaid. And unfortunately, they were paid early on, and set the table for other deals for players to be overpaid in this offseason.

Chris L.

 
At 2:03 PM, Blogger matt said...

Thanks for the comment Chris

I agree with you that Wright and especially Benson set the market for other SP's so high.

I think a fair price for Guzman would have been 1.5-2 million a year for no more than a two year deal. In my opinion he was paid double what he should have been, and give two more years than he should have. Here is a great article that was written about Guzman by one of my favorite baseball writers, Aaron Gleeman.
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-meat-market-shortstops/

 
At 12:29 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Idea for your next post: Who is better OC or Renteria... i have been wondering myself but have yet to research it. Thought you would be the one to get that done for me


Bruce

 
At 1:46 PM, Blogger matt said...

Bruce,

I know right now w/o doin the research that Edgar is better. However that being said it is a good idea to do a little research on it, and point it out to the readers of the site. Thanks for the idea, and the article will likely go up sometime this weekend, as I have a lot of work to do, and I cannot get to it right away.


Matt

 
At 4:39 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Matt

If Leo Mazzone fixed Jared Wright's problems in the past wouldn't he be the same pitcher in NY that he was in Atlanta? Or do you think that Jaret Wright will struggle in the American league?

 
At 7:15 PM, Blogger matt said...

Jaret Wright has been horrible his whole career. I just do not think that one good year makes up for all his bad years. Also, in NY many pitchers have gone there and has far worse ERA's. I was happy when Stottlemeyer said he was staying b.c. i pesonally do not think he is a good pitching coach. many pitchers have come there ( brown, vazquez, loaiza) and had their ERA's skyrocket. without mazzone by his side, i think there is a chance that this could happen to wright.

Plus moving from the NL to the AL is a huge move, and I think his ERA will suffer from that. Facing a DH instead of the pitcher makes a lot of differnce.

thanks for the comment!!

matt

 
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